Alex Caruso

Oklahoma City Thunder · G · #9

OKC @ MEM · Today 8:00 PM

Over Under8.5

Over 8.5 Points, typical price −1087 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

58%7 of 12L20 · Without Williams

Over 8.5 Points cleared in 7 of 12 games without Jalen Williams (his last 20 games).

vs PHX, 2026-04-19: 2, missed, 13 min (not counted)
vs PHX, 2026-04-22: 7, missed, 23 min (not counted)
at PHX, 2026-04-25: 13, cleared, 22 min
at PHX, 2026-04-27: 14, cleared, 25 min
vs LAL, 2026-05-05: 5, missed, 20 min
vs LAL, 2026-05-07: 5, missed, 22 min
at LAL, 2026-05-09: 6, missed, 20 min
at LAL, 2026-05-11: 9, cleared, 22 min
vs SA, 2026-05-18: 31, cleared, 32 min (not counted)
vs SA, 2026-05-20: 17, cleared, 25 min (not counted)
at SA, 2026-05-22: 15, cleared, 24 min
at SA, 2026-05-24: 0, missed, 14 min
vs SA, 2026-05-26: 22, cleared, 28 min
at SA, 2026-05-28: 7, missed, 21 min (not counted)
vs SA, 2026-05-30: 12, cleared, 39 min
at SA, 2026-10-20: 9, cleared, 25 min (not counted)
vs DEN, 2026-10-22: 7, missed, 20 min (not counted)
vs LAC, 2026-10-25: 12, cleared, 22 min (not counted)
vs PHX, 2026-10-26: 9, cleared, 9 min
vs CLE, 2026-11-04: 7, missed, 20 min

ClearedMissedThe 8.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

What's different today

Over 8.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

TodayTeammate out
Jalen Williams: Out (leg)
Over 8.5 without him: 13 of 43; with him: 21 of 51 (94 games as teammates)
TodayBack from an absence
Today's game is his 2nd back after missing 3 games in a row (Oct 28 – Nov 2)
Over 8.5 since: 0 of 1
Teammate out
Chet Holmgren: Out (knee)
Over 8.5 without him: 1 of 7; with him: 33 of 87 (94 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Cason Wallace: Out (shoulder)
Over 8.5 without him: 1 of 3; with him: 33 of 91 (94 games as teammates)

Splits

Over 8.5 · L20 · counts, not in order

No game against MEM in his last 20; Over 8.5 cleared in 3 of 10 against MEM on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Over 8.5 · L20

Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderG
Ajay MitchellG
Jalen WilliamsGOut
Chet HolmgrenCOut
Cason WallaceGOut

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Thunder count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs MEM

Points: 7 in 24 min, Jan 9 (away)

Over 8.5 hit in 3 of 10 games against MEM on record

L20 · Without Williams · Over 8.5

Average: 9.8; +1.3 vs line
Median: 9; +0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 58%; 7 of 12
Price implies: 52%; at −108
Books’ fair: 49%; margin removed
Minutes: 22.1; 12 games · 19.3 in 2025–26

Research, not a pick. We have no number of our own on this line yet; the market makes the Over 8.5 49%.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L20 · Without Williams

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L20
−2865 books	—	9/12
−2402 books	+1751 book	8/12
−1586 books	+1251 book	7/12
−1087 books	−1226 books	7/12
+1256 books	−1601 book	5/12
+1602 books	−2151 book	5/12
+2155 books	—	5/12

Compare 7 sportsbooks and 3 pick'em apps at 8.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 8.5 Points, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 8.5	Under 8.5
Bally Bet4 min ago	−106Best	—
betPARX3 min ago	−106Best	−127
BetRivers3 min ago	−106Best	−129
Pinnacle4 min ago	−108	−122
FanDuel2 min ago	−110	−120
DraftKings4 min ago	−114	−111Best
Bovada4 min ago	−115	−115
PrizePickspick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 3:35 PM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

8.5

−112 → −108 since first seen

Alex Caruso's full game log and splits