AJ Dybantsa

Washington Wizards · F · #4

ATL @ WSH · Tomorrow 7:00 PM

Over Under17.5

Under 17.5 Points, typical price −1262 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

What's different tonight

Under 17.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

TonightDefense vs forwards
ATL allow 48.6 points a game to forwards: 3rd most of 30
8 games
Teammate out
Tristan Vukcevic: Out (hip)
Under 17.5 without him: 1 of 3; with him: no games (3 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Jamir Watkins: Out (knee)
Under 17.5 without him: 1 of 3; with him: no games (3 games as teammates)
Minutes
Last 3: 30 min · 2026–27: 30 (3 games)

33%1 of 3L3

Under 17.5 Points hit in 1 of his last 3 games (1 of 1 at home).

at CLE, 2026-10-28: 19, missed, 27 min
vs CHA, 2026-10-30: 17, hit, 30 min
at ORL, 2026-11-02: 21, missed, 33 min

Under hitMissedThe 17.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for tonight: a typical night lands 7.7–23.1 points.

Splits

Under 17.5 · L3 · counts, not in order

No game against ATL on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Under 17.5 · L3

Anthony DavisF
Trae YoungG
Kyshawn GeorgeF
Tristan VukcevicFOut
Jamir WatkinsGOut

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out tonight. Only games they were teammates on the Wizards count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs ATL

Dybantsa didn't play the Feb 26 meeting

L3 · Under 17.5

Average: 19; +1.5 vs line
Median: 19; +1.5 vs line
Hit rate: 33%; 1 of 3
Price implies: 56%; at −126
Books’ fair: 52%; margin removed
Our chance: 52%; estimate · fair −108

Research, not a pick. At −122 (the best of 2 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −108, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge: props on our numbers have lost money since Oct 7.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L3

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L3
−9982 books	—	0/3
−4521 book	—	0/3
−2142 books	—	0/3
−1032 books	−1262 books	1/3
+1542 books	—	2/3
+4492 books	—	3/3
+12082 books	—	3/3

Compare 2 sportsbooks and 3 pick'em apps at 17.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 17.5 Points, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 17.5	Under 17.5
DraftKings9 min ago	−104	−122Best
FanDuel6 min ago	−102Best	−130
PrizePickspick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 8:55 PM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

17.5

−128 → −126 since first seen

What moved our number

Pace+3%

AJ Dybantsa's full game log and splits