Aaron Nesmith

Indiana Pacers · G · #23

IND @ MEM · Live

Over Under3.5

Under 3.5 Rebounds, typical price −1202 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

82%14 of 17L20 · Without Haliburton

Under 3.5 Rebounds hit in 14 of 17 games without Tyrese Haliburton (his last 20 games).

at NY, 2026-02-10: 8, missed, 37 min
at WSH, 2026-02-19: 2, hit, 15 min
at LAC, 2026-03-04: 3, hit, 20 min
at LAL, 2026-03-06: 3, hit, 23 min
at POR, 2026-03-08: 1, hit, 25 min
at SAC, 2026-03-10: 4, missed, 35 min
vs NY, 2026-03-13: 2, hit, 34 min
at MIL, 2026-03-15: 2, hit, 29 min
at NY, 2026-03-17: 1, hit, 24 min
vs POR, 2026-03-18: 3, hit, 26 min
at SA, 2026-03-21: 2, hit, 25 min
at ORL, 2026-03-23: 2, hit, 35 min
vs LAL, 2026-03-25: 3, hit, 32 min
vs LAC, 2026-03-27: 7, missed, 35 min
vs DAL, 2026-10-23: 4, missed, 20 min (not counted)
at BKN, 2026-10-25: 1, hit, 19 min (not counted)
at MIL, 2026-10-26: 0, hit, 21 min (not counted)
vs PHI, 2026-10-28: 2, hit, 27 min
at MIA, 2026-10-30: 3, hit, 21 min
vs BKN, 2026-11-01: 3, hit, 30 min

Under hitMissedThe 3.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 0–6.2 rebounds.

What's different today

Under 3.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

2 of his last 5 came with Tyrese Haliburton playing; Haliburton is out today. Without him: Under 3.5 in 26 of 48.

TodayTeammate out
Tyrese Haliburton: Out (hamstring)
Under 3.5 without him: 26 of 48; with him: 9 of 20 (68 games as teammates)
TodayMinutes
Last 5: 23.6 min · 2025–26: 29.6 (45 games) · down 20%
Teammate out
Kelly Oubre Jr.: Out (calf)
Under 3.5 without him: no games; with him: 5 of 6 (6 games as teammates)
Teammate out
T.J. McConnell: Out (hamstring)
Under 3.5 without him: 10 of 18; with him: 25 of 50 (68 games as teammates)

Splits

Under 3.5 · L20 · counts, not in order

No game against MEM in his last 20; Under 3.5 hit in 1 of 4 against MEM on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Under 3.5 · L20

Pascal SiakamF
Tyrese HaliburtonGOut
Andrew NembhardG
Kelly Oubre Jr.GOut
T.J. McConnellGOut

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Pacers count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs MEM

Nesmith didn't play the Mar 1 meeting; rebounds the last time Nesmith faced them: 1 (Oct 25, 2025)

Under 3.5 hit in 1 of 4 games against MEM on record

L20 · Without Haliburton · Under 3.5

Average: 3; −0.5 vs line
Median: 3; −0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 82%; 14 of 17
Price implies: 55%; at −120
Books’ fair: 51%; margin removed
Our chance: 61%; estimate · fair −155

Research, not a pick. At −120 the price beats our fair −155, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L20 · Without Haliburton

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L20
−9002 books	—	2/17
−2503 books	—	8/17
−1102 books	−1201 book	14/17
+2053 books	—	15/17
+3722 books	—	15/17
+7103 books	—	15/17
+13001 book	—	16/17

Compare 2 sportsbooks and 1 pick'em app at 3.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 3.5 Rebounds, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 3.5	Under 3.5
DraftKings2 hr ago	−110	−120Best
Bally Bet2 hr ago	+102Best	—
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 8:11 PM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

3.5

1.5 → 3.5 since first seen

What moved our number

Pace+3%

Aaron Nesmith's full game log and splits

This page last updated 8:13 PM ET.