Aaron Nesmith
IND @ MEM · Today 8:00 PM
What's different today
Over 1.5 · facts from past games, not a pickTodayTeammate out
Tyrese Haliburton: Out (hamstring)
Over 1.5 without him: 29 of 48; with him: 14 of 21 (69 games as teammates)
TodayMinutes
Last 5: 23.6 min · 2025–26: 29.6 (45 games) · down 20%
Teammate out
Obi Toppin: Out (back)
Over 1.5 without him: 20 of 33; with him: 23 of 36 (69 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Ivica Zubac: Out (ankle)
Over 1.5 without him: 5 of 8; with him: 3 of 6 (14 games as teammates)
Game log against Over 1.5
41%7 of 17L20 · Without Haliburton
Over 1.5 3-Pointers Made cleared in 7 of 17 games without Tyrese Haliburton (his last 20 games).
Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 0–4 3-pointers made.
Splits
Over 1.5 · L20 · counts, not in orderNo game against MEM in his last 20; Over 1.5 cleared in 4 of 4 against MEM on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.
With or without
Over 1.5 · L20Pascal SiakamF
Tyrese HaliburtonGOut
Andrew NembhardG
Obi ToppinFOut
Ivica ZubacCOut
The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Pacers count; “without” is a game he didn't play.
Last vs MEM
Nesmith didn't play the Mar 1 meeting; 3-pointers made the last time Nesmith faced them: 4 (Oct 25, 2025)
Over 1.5 hit in 4 of 4 games against MEM on record
L20 · Without Haliburton · Over 1.5
- Average
- 2
- +0.5 vs line
- Median
- 1
- −0.5 vs line
- Hit rate
- 41%
- 7 of 17
- Price implies
- 64%
- at −177
- Books’ fair
- 60%
- margin removed
- Our chance
- 57%
- estimate · fair −135
Research, not a pick. At −175 (the best of 5 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −135, so it isn't worth it.
Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.
Lines posted now
Over hits, L20 · Without Haliburton| Line | Over | Under | L20 |
|---|---|---|---|
| −8355 books | — | 14/17 | |
| −1775 books | +1284 books | 7/17 | |
| +1605 books | — | 5/17 | |
| +3805 books | — | 4/17 | |
| +7505 books | — | 2/17 | |
| +15002 books | — | 1/17 | |
| +30001 book | — | 1/17 |
Compare 5 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 1.5
| Sportsbook · read | Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
|---|---|---|
| Bally Bet16 min ago | −175Best | — |
| betPARX2 min ago | −175Best | +128 |
| BetRivers3 min ago | −177 | +128 |
| DraftKings17 min ago | −181 | +136 |
| FanDuel2 min ago | −186 | +138Best |
| Sleeperpick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
| Underdogpick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
Prices as of 8:07 AM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.
The consensus line
1.5Over: −182 → −177 since first seen