Aaron Nesmith

Indiana Pacers · G · #23

IND @ MEM · Today 8:00 PM

Over Under1.5

Over 1.5 3-Pointers Made, typical price −1806 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

What's different today

Over 1.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

TodayTeammate out
Tyrese Haliburton: Out (hamstring)
Over 1.5 without him: 29 of 48; with him: 14 of 21 (69 games as teammates)
TodayMinutes
Last 5: 23.6 min · 2025–26: 29.6 (45 games) · down 20%
Teammate out
Obi Toppin: Out (back)
Over 1.5 without him: 20 of 33; with him: 23 of 36 (69 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Ivica Zubac: Out (ankle)
Over 1.5 without him: 5 of 8; with him: 3 of 6 (14 games as teammates)

41%7 of 17L20 · Without Haliburton

Over 1.5 3-Pointers Made cleared in 7 of 17 games without Tyrese Haliburton (his last 20 games).

at NY, 2026-02-10: 1, missed, 37 min
at WSH, 2026-02-19: 0, missed, 15 min
at LAC, 2026-03-04: 0, missed, 20 min
at LAL, 2026-03-06: 1, missed, 23 min
at POR, 2026-03-08: 1, missed, 25 min
at SAC, 2026-03-10: 2, cleared, 35 min
vs NY, 2026-03-13: 1, missed, 34 min
at MIL, 2026-03-15: 7, cleared, 29 min
at NY, 2026-03-17: 4, cleared, 24 min
vs POR, 2026-03-18: 1, missed, 26 min
at SA, 2026-03-21: 1, missed, 25 min
at ORL, 2026-03-23: 5, cleared, 35 min
vs LAL, 2026-03-25: 2, cleared, 32 min
vs LAC, 2026-03-27: 4, cleared, 35 min
vs DAL, 2026-10-23: 1, missed, 20 min (not counted)
at BKN, 2026-10-25: 2, cleared, 19 min (not counted)
at MIL, 2026-10-26: 3, cleared, 21 min (not counted)
vs PHI, 2026-10-28: 3, cleared, 27 min
at MIA, 2026-10-30: 1, missed, 21 min
vs BKN, 2026-11-01: 0, missed, 30 min

ClearedMissedThe 1.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 0–4 3-pointers made.

Splits

Over 1.5 · L20 · counts, not in order

No game against MEM in his last 20; Over 1.5 cleared in 4 of 4 against MEM on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Over 1.5 · L20

Pascal SiakamF
Tyrese HaliburtonGOut
Andrew NembhardG
Obi ToppinFOut
Ivica ZubacCOut

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Pacers count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs MEM

Nesmith didn't play the Mar 1 meeting; 3-pointers made the last time Nesmith faced them: 4 (Oct 25, 2025)

Over 1.5 hit in 4 of 4 games against MEM on record

L20 · Without Haliburton · Over 1.5

Average: 2; +0.5 vs line
Median: 1; −0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 41%; 7 of 17
Price implies: 64%; at −180
Books’ fair: 60%; margin removed
Our chance: 57%; estimate · fair −135

Research, not a pick. At −175 (the best of 6 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −135, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L20 · Without Haliburton

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L20
−8506 books	—	14/17
−1806 books	+1355 books	7/17
+1606 books	−2301 book	5/17
+3756 books	—	4/17
+7506 books	—	2/17
+19403 books	—	1/17
+35001 book	—	1/17

Compare 6 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 1.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 1.5 3-Pointers Made, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 1.5	Under 1.5
Bally Bet12 min ago	−175Best	—
betPARX5 min ago	−177	+130
BetRivers6 min ago	−180	+130
Bovada12 min ago	−180	+135
DraftKings12 min ago	−181	+136Best
FanDuel8 min ago	−182	+136Best
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 10:12 AM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

1.5

Over: −182 → −180 since first seen

What moved our number

Pace+3%

Aaron Nesmith's full game log and splits