Aaron Gordon

Denver Nuggets · F · #32

TOR @ DEN · Tomorrow 9:00 PM

Over Under0.5

Over 0.5 Steals, typical price −2201 sportsbook · consensus lineUpdated

What's different tomorrow

Over 0.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Teammate out
Spencer Jones: Out (hamstring)
Over 0.5 without him: 9 of 16; with him: 11 of 29 (45 games as teammates)
Defense vs forwards
TOR allow 3.1 steals a game to forwards: 16th most of 30
7 games
Minutes
Last 5: 30.4 min · 2025–26: 28 (39 games)
Rest
1 day off since Nov 2 vs POR

50%5 of 10L10

Over 0.5 Steals cleared in 5 of his last 10 games (3 of 6 at home).

vs MEM, 2026-04-08: 0, missed, 22 min
vs MIN, 2026-04-18: 0, missed, 29 min
vs MIN, 2026-04-20: 0, missed, 37 min
at MIN, 2026-04-25: 0, missed, 23 min
at OKC, 2026-10-22: 2, cleared, 29 min
vs NO, 2026-10-24: 2, cleared, 37 min
vs GS, 2026-10-26: 1, cleared, 25 min
at NO, 2026-10-28: 1, cleared, 31 min
at PHX, 2026-10-30: 0, missed, 29 min
vs POR, 2026-11-02: 1, cleared, 30 min

ClearedMissedThe 0.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Splits

Over 0.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against TOR in his last 10; Over 0.5 cleared in 1 of 5 against TOR on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Over 0.5 · L10

Nikola JokicC
Jamal MurrayG
DeMar DeRozanG
Spencer JonesFOut

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out tomorrow. Only games they were teammates on the Nuggets count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs TOR

Steals: 0 in 29 min, Mar 20 (home)

Over 0.5 hit in 1 of 5 games against TOR on record

L10 · Over 0.5

Average: 0.7; +0.2 vs line
Median: 0.5; ±0 vs line
Hit rate: 50%; 5 of 10
Price implies: 69%; at −220
Books’ fair: 64%; margin removed
Minutes: 29.2; 10 games · 28 in 2025–26

Research, not a pick. We have no number of our own on this line yet; the market makes the Over 0.5 64%.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−2201 book	+1621 book	5/10
+2251 book	—	2/10
+7501 book	—	0/10

Compare 1 sportsbook and 2 pick'em apps at 0.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 0.5 Steals, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 0.5	Under 0.5
FanDuel3 min ago	−220Best	+162Best
PrizePickspick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 11:54 PM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

0.5

Over No move since first seen

Aaron Gordon's full game log and splits