Zach Benson

Buffalo Sabres · LW · #6

OTT @ BUF · Live

Over Under2.5

Under 2.5 Shots on Goal, typical price −1803 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

50%5 of 10L10

Under 2.5 Shots on Goal hit in 5 of his last 10 games (3 of 3 at home).

vs UTAH, 2026-10-10: 1, hit, 19.9 min
vs FLA, 2026-10-12: 2, hit, 19.7 min
at MTL, 2026-10-13: 1, hit, 19.6 min
at TOR, 2026-10-15: 4, missed, 21.3 min
at MTL, 2026-10-17: 3, missed, 21.3 min
vs PHI, 2026-10-21: 1, hit, 21.4 min
at WSH, 2026-10-24: 2, hit, 18.5 min
at SJ, 2026-10-27: 5, missed, 17.9 min
at ANA, 2026-10-29: 3, missed, 19.5 min
at LA, 2026-10-31: 4, missed, 23.3 min

Under hitMissedThe 2.5 linehis 2026–27 time on ice

Our model's range for yesterday's game: a typical game lands 1–5 shots on goal.

What's different yesterday

Under 2.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Teammate out
Konsta Helenius: Out (upper body)
Under 2.5 without him: 24 of 36; with him: 17 of 22 (58 games as teammates)
Opposing goalie
Samuel Ersson (Confirmed)
Saves: 177 of 204 (.868) over his last 10 games · 4 of OTT's last 10 starts
Defense vs forwards
OTT allow 20.4 shots on goal a game to forwards: 16th most of 32
16 games · last 10 games: 21.1, 8th most
Time on ice
Last 5: 20.1 min · 2026–27: 20 (14 games)
Power play: 3.1 min last 5 · 3.5 2026–27

Splits

Under 2.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against OTT in his last 10; Under 2.5 hit in 7 of 8 against OTT on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Under 2.5 · L10

Tage ThompsonC
Rasmus DahlinD
Jack QuinnRW
Konsta HeleniusCOut

The three skaters with the most points a game among those playing 12+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out yesterday. Only games they were teammates on the Sabres count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs OTT

Shots on Goal: 1 in 17.6 min, Apr 2 (away)

Under 2.5 hit in 7 of 8 games against OTT on record

L10 · Under 2.5

Average: 2.6; +0.1 vs line
Median: 2.5; ±0 vs line
Hit rate: 50%; 5 of 10
Price implies: 64%; at −180
Books’ fair: 60%; margin removed
Our chance: 57%; estimate · fair −131

Research, not a pick. At −167 (the best of 3 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −131, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−10001 book	—	0/10
−2151 book	—	3/10
+1303 books	−1803 books	5/10
+3301 book	—	7/10
+7501 book	—	9/10
+18001 book	—	10/10

Compare 3 sportsbooks and 1 pick'em app at 2.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 2.5 Shots on Goal, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Pinnacle20 hr ago	+125	−167Best
DraftKings20 hr ago	+130	−180
Bally Bet20 hr ago	+133Best	−190
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 7:43 PM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

2.5

Under: −188 → −180 since first seen

Zach Benson's full game log and splits

This page last updated 7:43 PM ET.