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Zach Benson

Buffalo Sabres · LW · #6

OTT @ BUF · Tomorrow 7:30 PM
OverUnder2.5
Under 2.5 Shots on Goal, typical price −1882 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

What's different tonight

Under 2.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

  • Teammate out

    Konsta Helenius: Out (upper body)

    Under 2.5 without him: 24 of 36; with him: 17 of 22 (58 games as teammates)

  • Teammate out

    Conor Timmins: Injured Reserve (lower body)

    Under 2.5 without him: 40 of 53; with him: 27 of 39 (92 games as teammates)

  • Opposing goalie

    Samuel Ersson (Expected)

    Saves: 177 of 204 (.868) over his last 10 games · 4 of OTT's last 10 starts

  • Defense vs forwards

    OTT allow 20.4 shots on goal a game to forwards: 16th most of 32

    16 games · last 10 games: 21.1, 9th most

Game log against Under 2.5

50%5 of 10L10

Under 2.5 Shots on Goal hit in 5 of his last 10 games (3 of 3 at home).

  1. vs UTAH, 2026-10-10: 1, hit, 19.9 min
  2. vs FLA, 2026-10-12: 2, hit, 19.7 min
  3. at MTL, 2026-10-13: 1, hit, 19.6 min
  4. at TOR, 2026-10-15: 4, missed, 21.3 min
  5. at MTL, 2026-10-17: 3, missed, 21.3 min
  6. vs PHI, 2026-10-21: 1, hit, 21.4 min
  7. at WSH, 2026-10-24: 2, hit, 18.5 min
  8. at SJ, 2026-10-27: 5, missed, 17.9 min
  9. at ANA, 2026-10-29: 3, missed, 19.5 min
  10. at LA, 2026-10-31: 4, missed, 23.3 min
Under hitMissedThe 2.5 linehis 2026–27 time on ice

Our model's range for tonight: a typical night lands 1–5 shots on goal.

Splits

Under 2.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against OTT in his last 10; Under 2.5 hit in 7 of 8 against OTT on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Under 2.5 · L10

  • Tage ThompsonC

  • Rasmus DahlinD

  • Jack QuinnRW

  • Konsta HeleniusCOut

  • Conor TimminsDInjured Reserve

The three skaters with the most points a game among those playing 12+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out tonight. Only games they were teammates on the Sabres count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs OTT

Shots on Goal: 1 in 17.6 min, Apr 2 (away)

Under 2.5 hit in 7 of 8 games against OTT on record

L10 · Under 2.5

Average
2.6
+0.1 vs line
Median
2.5
±0 vs line
Hit rate
50%
5 of 10
Price implies
65%
at −188
Books’ fair
61%
margin removed
Our chance
57%
estimate · fair −133

Research, not a pick. At −188 the price is worse than our fair −133, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge: props on our numbers have lost money since Oct 7.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10
Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
LineOverUnderL10
−13712 books—0/10
−2302 books—3/10
+1422 books−1881 book5/10
+3402 books—7/10
Compare 2 sportsbooks at 2.5
Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 2.5 Shots on Goal, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · readOver 2.5Under 2.5
FanDuel3 min ago+142Best−188Best
Bovada9 min ago+142Best—

Prices as of 11:44 PM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

2.5

Under No move since first seen

Zach Benson's full game log and splits