Vincent Trocheck

Utah Mammoth · C · #16

UTAH @ TOR · Today 7:00 PM

Over Under1.5

Over 1.5 Shots on Goal, typical price −1055 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

What's different tonight

Over 1.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Teammate out
John Marino: Injured Reserve (upper body)
Over 1.5 without him: 5 of 6; with him: 4 of 9 (15 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Maveric Lamoureux: Injured Reserve (shoulder)
Over 1.5 without him: 9 of 15; with him: no games (15 games as teammates)
Opposing goalie
Sergei Bobrovsky (Confirmed)
Saves: 255 of 288 (.885) over his last 10 games · 6 of TOR's last 10 starts
Defense vs forwards
TOR allow 20.4 shots on goal a game to forwards: 16th most of 32
16 games · last 10 games: 18.9, 22nd most

70%7 of 10L10

Over 1.5 Shots on Goal cleared in 7 of his last 10 games (3 of 5 on the road).

at BUF, 2026-10-10: 0, missed, 17.3 min
vs TOR, 2026-10-13: 3, cleared, 16.9 min
at EDM, 2026-10-15: 0, missed, 13.8 min
vs EDM, 2026-10-17: 2, cleared, 15.6 min
vs PIT, 2026-10-19: 0, missed, 15 min
at SEA, 2026-10-22: 4, cleared, 17.7 min
vs TB, 2026-10-24: 2, cleared, 21 min
vs MIN, 2026-10-27: 5, cleared, 15.4 min
at PIT, 2026-10-29: 4, cleared, 19.9 min
at PHI, 2026-11-01: 2, cleared, 19.1 min

ClearedMissedThe 1.5 linehis 2026–27 time on ice

Our model's range for tonight: a typical night lands 0–4 shots on goal.

Splits

Over 1.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Over 1.5 · L10

Clayton KellerRW
Mikhail SergachevD
Logan CooleyC
John MarinoDInjured Reserve
Maveric LamoureuxDInjured Reserve

The three skaters with the most points a game among those playing 12+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out tonight. Only games they were teammates on the Mammoth count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs TOR

Shots on Goal: 3 in 16.9 min, Oct 13 (home)

Over 1.5 hit in 5 of 5 games against TOR on record

L10 · Over 1.5

Average: 2.2; +0.7 vs line
Median: 2; +0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 70%; 7 of 10
Price implies: 51%; at −105
Books’ fair: 49%; margin removed
Our chance: 57%; estimate · fair −132

Research, not a pick. At −105 (the best of 5 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −132, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge: props on our numbers have lost money since Oct 7.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−6001 book	—	7/10
−1055 books	−1304 books	7/10
+2151 book	—	4/10
+5501 book	—	3/10
+14001 book	—	1/10

Compare 5 sportsbooks and 3 pick'em apps at 1.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 1.5 Shots on Goal, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 1.5	Under 1.5
Bally Bet5 min ago	−105Best	−134
betPARX4 min ago	−105Best	−134
BetRivers4 min ago	−105Best	—
Pinnacle6 min ago	−105Best	−126
DraftKings15 min ago	−140	+100Best
PrizePickspick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 2:09 PM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

1.5

Over No move since first seen

Vincent Trocheck's full game log and splits