Vincent Trocheck

Utah Mammoth · C · #16

UTAH @ TOR · Today 7:00 PM

Over Under0.5

Under 0.5 Assists, typical price −2166 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

What's different tonight

Under 0.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Teammate out
John Marino: Injured Reserve (upper body)
Under 0.5 without him: 3 of 6; with him: 7 of 9 (15 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Maveric Lamoureux: Injured Reserve (shoulder)
Under 0.5 without him: 10 of 15; with him: no games (15 games as teammates)
Opposing goalie
Sergei Bobrovsky (Confirmed)
Saves: 255 of 288 (.885) over his last 10 games · 6 of TOR's last 10 starts
Defense vs forwards
TOR allow 3.75 assists a game to forwards: 15th most of 32
16 games · last 10 games: 4.20, 6th most

60%6 of 10L10

Under 0.5 Assists hit in 6 of his last 10 games (2 of 5 on the road).

at BUF, 2026-10-10: 0, hit, 17.3 min
vs TOR, 2026-10-13: 0, hit, 16.9 min
at EDM, 2026-10-15: 1, missed, 13.8 min
vs EDM, 2026-10-17: 0, hit, 15.6 min
vs PIT, 2026-10-19: 0, hit, 15 min
at SEA, 2026-10-22: 0, hit, 17.7 min
vs TB, 2026-10-24: 2, missed, 21 min
vs MIN, 2026-10-27: 0, hit, 15.4 min
at PIT, 2026-10-29: 1, missed, 19.9 min
at PHI, 2026-11-01: 1, missed, 19.1 min

Under hitMissedThe 0.5 lineTime on ice

Our model's range for tonight: a typical night lands 0–1 assists.

Count only

Under 0.5 · L10

With or without

Under 0.5 · L10

Clayton KellerRW
Mikhail SergachevD
Logan CooleyC
John MarinoDInjured Reserve
Maveric LamoureuxDInjured Reserve

The three skaters with the most points a game among those playing 12+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out tonight. Only games they were teammates on the Mammoth count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs TOR

Assists: 0 in 16.9 min, Oct 13 (home)

Under 0.5 hit in 3 of 5 games against TOR on record

L10 · Under 0.5

Average: 0.5; ±0 vs line
Median: 0; −0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 60%; 6 of 10
Price implies: 68%; at −216
Books’ fair: 64%; margin removed
Our chance: 64%; estimate · fair −175

Research, not a pick. At −215 (the best of 2 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −175, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge: props on our numbers have lost money since Oct 7.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Line	Over	Under	L10
	+1476 books	−2162 books	6/10
	+8852 books	—	9/10

Compare 6 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 0.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 0.5 Assists, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 0.5	Under 0.5
DraftKings10 min ago	+155	−215Best
Pinnacle10 min ago	+160Best	−218
Bally Bet10 min ago	+143	—
betPARX5 min ago	+143	—
BetRivers5 min ago	+143	—
FanDuel6 min ago	+152	—
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 1:07 PM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

0.5

Under isn't priced at 0.5 right now.

Vincent Trocheck's full game log and splits