Viktor Arvidsson
VGK @ DET · Today 7:00 PM
Game log against Over 0.5
50%3 of 6L20 · Without Larkin
Over 0.5 Points cleared in 3 of 6 games without Dylan Larkin (his last 20 games).
Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 0–2 points.
What's different today
Over 0.5 · facts from past games, not a pickTodayTeammate out
Dylan Larkin: Injured Reserve (suspension)
Over 0.5 without him: 3 of 6; with him: 6 of 10 (16 games as teammates)
TodayOpposing goalie
Carter Hart (Expected)
Saves: 221 of 247 (.895) over his last 10 games · 4 of VGK's last 10 starts · Adin Hill started 6
Teammate out
Simon Edvinsson: Injured Reserve (contract dispute)
Over 0.5 without him: 9 of 16; with him: no games (16 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Albert Johansson: Injured Reserve (undisclosed)
Over 0.5 without him: 3 of 5; with him: 6 of 11 (16 games as teammates)
Splits
Over 0.5 · L20 · counts, not in orderNo game against VGK in his last 20; Over 0.5 cleared in 2 of 7 against VGK on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.
With or without
Over 0.5 · L20Alex DeBrincatRW
Lucas RaymondLW
Dylan LarkinCInjured Reserve
Simon EdvinssonDInjured Reserve
Albert JohanssonDInjured Reserve
The three skaters with the most points a game among those playing 12+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Red Wings count; “without” is a game he didn't play.
Last vs VGK
Arvidsson didn't play the Mar 4 meeting; points the last time Arvidsson faced them: 0 (Jan 22)
Over 0.5 hit in 2 of 7 games against VGK on record
L20 · Without Larkin · Over 0.5
- Average
- 1
- +0.5 vs line
- Median
- 0.5
- ±0 vs line
- Hit rate
- 50%
- 3 of 6
- Price implies
- 58%
- at −140
- Books’ fair
- 55%
- margin removed
- Our chance
- 57%
- estimate · fair −130
Research, not a pick. At −125 (the best of 6 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −130, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.
Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.
Lines posted now
Over hits, L20 · Without Larkin| Line | Over | Under | L20 |
|---|---|---|---|
| −1406 books | +1052 books | 3/6 | |
| +3605 books | — | 1/6 | |
| +10002 books | — | 1/6 |
Compare 6 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 0.5
| Sportsbook · read | Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
|---|---|---|
| Bally Bet4 min ago | −125Best | — |
| betPARX1 min ago | −125Best | — |
| BetRivers1 min ago | −125Best | — |
| Pinnacle4 min ago | −140 | +105 |
| DraftKings4 min ago | −145 | +110Best |
| FanDuel1 min ago | −164 | — |
| Sleeperpick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
| Underdogpick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
Prices as of 4:18 PM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.
The consensus line
0.5−178 → −140 since first seen