Viktor Arvidsson

Detroit Red Wings · LW · #33

VGK @ DET · Today 7:00 PM

Over Under0.5

Over 0.5 Points, typical price −1802 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

50%3 of 6L20 · Without Larkin

Over 0.5 Points cleared in 3 of 6 games without Dylan Larkin (his last 20 games).

at BUF, 2026-04-19: 0, missed, 12.8 min (not counted)
at BUF, 2026-04-21: 2, cleared, 13.9 min (not counted)
vs BUF, 2026-04-23: 0, missed, 15.6 min (not counted)
vs BUF, 2026-04-26: 0, missed, 3.2 min (not counted)
vs NYR, 2026-10-02: 0, missed, 16.3 min
vs WPG, 2026-10-04: 1, cleared, 21.4 min
vs OTT, 2026-10-06: 2, cleared, 17.3 min (not counted)
vs SEA, 2026-10-09: 1, cleared, 17.6 min (not counted)
at MTL, 2026-10-10: 0, missed, 19.4 min (not counted)
vs NJ, 2026-10-13: 0, missed, 20.2 min (not counted)
vs PHI, 2026-10-15: 0, missed, 20 min (not counted)
vs SJ, 2026-10-17: 1, cleared, 21 min (not counted)
at SEA, 2026-10-20: 1, cleared, 20.8 min (not counted)
at VAN, 2026-10-22: 2, cleared, 14 min (not counted)
at CGY, 2026-10-24: 0, missed, 20.3 min (not counted)
at EDM, 2026-10-26: 2, cleared, 18.2 min (not counted)
vs CHI, 2026-10-29: 4, cleared, 17.1 min
vs STL, 2026-10-31: 0, missed, 20 min
at FLA, 2026-11-02: 1, cleared, 18.2 min
at TB, 2026-11-03: 0, missed, 20.6 min

ClearedMissedThe 0.5 linehis 2026–27 time on ice

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 0–2 points.

What's different today

Over 0.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

TodayTeammate out
Dylan Larkin: Injured Reserve (suspension)
Over 0.5 without him: 3 of 6; with him: 6 of 10 (16 games as teammates)
TodayOpposing goalie
Carter Hart (Expected)
Saves: 221 of 247 (.895) over his last 10 games · 4 of VGK's last 10 starts · Adin Hill started 6
Teammate out
Simon Edvinsson: Injured Reserve (contract dispute)
Over 0.5 without him: 9 of 16; with him: no games (16 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Albert Johansson: Injured Reserve (undisclosed)
Over 0.5 without him: 3 of 5; with him: 6 of 11 (16 games as teammates)

Splits

Over 0.5 · L20 · counts, not in order

No game against VGK in his last 20; Over 0.5 cleared in 2 of 7 against VGK on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Over 0.5 · L20

Alex DeBrincatRW
Lucas RaymondLW
Dylan LarkinCInjured Reserve
Simon EdvinssonDInjured Reserve
Albert JohanssonDInjured Reserve

The three skaters with the most points a game among those playing 12+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Red Wings count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs VGK

Arvidsson didn't play the Mar 4 meeting; points the last time Arvidsson faced them: 0 (Jan 22)

Over 0.5 hit in 2 of 7 games against VGK on record

L20 · Without Larkin · Over 0.5

Average: 1; +0.5 vs line
Median: 0.5; ±0 vs line
Hit rate: 50%; 3 of 6
Price implies: 64%; at −180
Books’ fair: 54%; margin removed
Our chance: 56%; estimate · fair −129

Research, not a pick. At −140 (the best of 2 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −129, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L20 · Without Larkin

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L20
−1802 books	+1051 book	3/6
+2802 books	—	1/6
+9002 books	—	1/6

Compare 2 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 0.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 0.5 Points, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 0.5	Under 0.5
DraftKings10 min ago	−140Best	+105Best
FanDuel4 min ago	−180	—
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 5:51 AM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

0.5

−178 → −180 since first seen

Viktor Arvidsson's full game log and splits