Tyler Toffoli

San Jose Sharks · C · #73

SJ @ LA · Wed, Nov 4 10:00 PM

Over Under2.5

Under 2.5 Shots on Goal, typical price −1753 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

71%5 of 7L20 · Without Wennberg

Under 2.5 Shots on Goal hit in 5 of 7 games without Alexander Wennberg (his last 20 games).

at ANA, 2026-04-09: 2, hit, 12.2 min (not counted)
vs VAN, 2026-04-11: 4, missed, 12.1 min (not counted)
at NSH, 2026-04-13: 1, hit, 11.9 min (not counted)
at CHI, 2026-04-15: 0, hit, 14.1 min (not counted)
vs FLA, 2026-10-01: 1, hit, 9.4 min (not counted)
vs LA, 2026-10-03: 3, missed, 14.5 min (not counted)
at DAL, 2026-10-05: 3, missed, 14.1 min (not counted)
at STL, 2026-10-08: 4, missed, 15.9 min (not counted)
vs EDM, 2026-10-10: 1, hit, 11.4 min (not counted)
vs BOS, 2026-10-13: 5, missed, 12.7 min (not counted)
at NSH, 2026-10-15: 3, missed, 13.5 min (not counted)
at DET, 2026-10-17: 0, hit, 12.1 min (not counted)
at TOR, 2026-10-19: 2, hit, 13.6 min (not counted)
at MTL, 2026-10-20: 1, hit, 12.3 min
at OTT, 2026-10-22: 1, hit, 11.1 min
at BOS, 2026-10-24: 3, missed, 13.9 min
vs BUF, 2026-10-27: 1, hit, 12.8 min
vs VAN, 2026-10-29: 0, hit, 12.5 min
vs OTT, 2026-10-31: 1, hit, 14.9 min
vs CGY, 2026-11-02: 6, missed, 17 min

Under hitMissedThe 2.5 linehis 2026–27 time on ice

Our model's range for Wednesday's game: a typical game lands 0–4 shots on goal.

What's different on Wednesday

Under 2.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

2 of his 7 hits in the last 10 came with Alexander Wennberg playing; Wennberg is out on Wednesday. Without him: Under 2.5 in 6 of 8.

WedTeammate out
Alexander Wennberg: Injured Reserve (upper body)
Under 2.5 without him: 6 of 8; with him: 54 of 87 (95 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Igor Chernyshov: Injured Reserve (upper body)
Under 2.5 without him: 15 of 25; with him: 24 of 37 (62 games as teammates)
Opposing goalie
Darcy Kuemper (Confirmed)
Saves: 227 of 264 (.860) over his last 10 games · 5 of LA's last 10 starts
Defense vs forwards
LA allow 20.6 shots on goal a game to forwards: 10th most of 32
13 games · last 10 games: 20.6, 11th most

Splits

Under 2.5 · L20 · counts, not in order

Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Under 2.5 · L20

Macklin CelebriniC
Alexander WennbergCInjured Reserve
Will SmithC
Igor ChernyshovLWInjured Reserve

The three skaters with the most points a game among those playing 12+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out on Wednesday. Only games they were teammates on the Sharks count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs LA

Shots on Goal: 3 in 14.5 min, Oct 3 (home)

Under 2.5 hit in 4 of 9 games against LA on record

L20 · Without Wennberg · Under 2.5

Average: 1.9; −0.6 vs line
Median: 1; −1.5 vs line
Hit rate: 71%; 5 of 7
Price implies: 64%; at −175
Books’ fair: 60%; margin removed
Our chance: 60%; estimate · fair −152

Research, not a pick. At −170 (the best of 3 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −152, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L20 · Without Wennberg

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L20
−9001 book	—	1/7
−2001 book	—	5/7
+1273 books	−1753 books	5/7
+3401 book	—	6/7
+8001 book	—	6/7
+19001 book	—	6/7

Compare 3 sportsbooks and 1 pick'em app at 2.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 2.5 Shots on Goal, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Pinnacle28 hr ago	+127	−170Best
Bally Bet28 hr ago	+123	−175
DraftKings28 hr ago	+140Best	−190
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 10:14 PM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

2.5

Under: −165 → −175 since first seen

Tyler Toffoli's full game log and splits

This page last updated 10:14 PM ET.