Trevor Zegras

Philadelphia Flyers · C · #46

MIN @ PHI · Today 7:00 PM

Over Under0.5

Under 0.5 Assists, typical price −1907 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

What's different tonight

Under 0.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

TonightDefense vs forwards
MIN allow 2.63 assists a game to forwards: 31st most of 32
16 games · last 10 games: 2.70, 28th most
Teammate out
Rasmus Ristolainen: Injured Reserve (hand)
Under 0.5 without him: 12 of 18; with him: 34 of 58 (76 games as teammates)
Opposing goalie
Jesper Wallstedt (Confirmed)
Saves: 229 of 250 (.916) over his last 10 games · 8 of MIN's last 10 starts
Time on ice
Last 5: 19 min · 2026–27: 18.6 (16 games)
Power play: 4.4 min last 5 · 3.4 2026–27

60%6 of 10L10

Under 0.5 Assists hit in 6 of his last 10 games (4 of 7 at home).

vs CAR, 2026-10-11: 0, hit, 16.1 min
vs SEA, 2026-10-13: 0, hit, 21.7 min
at DET, 2026-10-15: 0, hit, 18 min
vs OTT, 2026-10-17: 0, hit, 19.3 min
vs COL, 2026-10-19: 3, missed, 17.7 min
at BUF, 2026-10-21: 0, hit, 16.6 min
vs ANA, 2026-10-24: 2, missed, 21.5 min
vs CBJ, 2026-10-27: 1, missed, 20.8 min
at WSH, 2026-10-28: 1, missed, 19.2 min
vs UTAH, 2026-11-01: 0, hit, 17.1 min

Under hitMissedThe 0.5 linehis 2026–27 time on ice

Our model's range for tonight: a typical night lands 0–2 assists.

Splits

Under 0.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against MIN in his last 10; Under 0.5 hit in 1 of 4 against MIN on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Under 0.5 · L10

Oliver BonkD
Matvei MichkovRW
Travis KonecnyRW
Rasmus RistolainenDInjured Reserve

The three skaters with the most points a game among those playing 12+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out tonight. Only games they were teammates on the Flyers count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs MIN

Assists: 1 in 21.1 min, Mar 12 (away)

Under 0.5 hit in 1 of 4 games against MIN on record

L10 · Under 0.5

Average: 0.7; +0.2 vs line
Median: 0; −0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 60%; 6 of 10
Price implies: 66%; at −190
Books’ fair: 61%; margin removed
Our chance: 59%; estimate · fair −145

Research, not a pick. At −190 (the best of 2 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −145, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge: props on our numbers have lost money since Oct 7.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Line	Over	Under	L10
	+1547 books	−1902 books	6/10
	+8503 books	—	8/10

Compare 7 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 0.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 0.5 Assists, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 0.5	Under 0.5
DraftKings12 min ago	+140	−190Best
Pinnacle3 min ago	+142	−191
Bally Bet3 min ago	+163Best	—
betPARX3 min ago	+163Best	—
BetRivers3 min ago	+163Best	—
Bovada3 min ago	+154	—
FanDuel3 min ago	+152	—
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 4:43 PM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

0.5

Under isn't priced at 0.5 right now.

Trevor Zegras's full game log and splits