Tommy Novak

Pittsburgh Penguins · C · #18

BOS @ PIT · Today 7:00 PM

Over Under0.5

Over 0.5 Goals, typical price +2306 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

38%3 of 8L20 · Without Rust

Over 0.5 Goals cleared in 3 of 8 games without Bryan Rust (his last 20 games).

vs PHI, 2026-04-20: 0, missed, 13.2 min (not counted)
at PHI, 2026-04-22: 0, missed, 12.7 min (not counted)
at PHI, 2026-04-25: 0, missed, 13 min (not counted)
vs PHI, 2026-04-27: 0, missed, 14.1 min (not counted)
at PHI, 2026-04-29: 0, missed, 17.4 min (not counted)
at PHI, 2026-09-30: 0, missed, 16.1 min
vs MTL, 2026-10-03: 2, cleared, 14.7 min
vs WPG, 2026-10-05: 0, missed, 15.2 min
at WSH, 2026-10-07: 1, cleared, 15.3 min (not counted)
at CBJ, 2026-10-09: 0, missed, 14.6 min (not counted)
vs DAL, 2026-10-10: 0, missed, 15.7 min (not counted)
at CHI, 2026-10-13: 0, missed, 16.6 min (not counted)
at COL, 2026-10-16: 0, missed, 15.3 min (not counted)
at VGK, 2026-10-17: 0, missed, 12.7 min (not counted)
at UTAH, 2026-10-19: 0, missed, 13.1 min (not counted)
vs FLA, 2026-10-22: 0, missed, 16.6 min
vs NSH, 2026-10-24: 0, missed, 19.5 min
vs UTAH, 2026-10-29: 0, missed, 17.1 min
at MTL, 2026-10-31: 1, cleared, 18 min
vs VGK, 2026-11-03: 1, cleared, 19.2 min

ClearedMissedThe 0.5 linehis 2026–27 time on ice

What's different today

Over 0.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

TodayTeammate out
Bryan Rust: Injured Reserve (lower body)
Over 0.5 without him: 4 of 16; with him: 16 of 85 (101 games as teammates)
TodayDefense vs forwards
BOS allow 1.94 goals a game to forwards: 30th most of 32
16 games · last 10 games: 2.20, 28th most
Teammate out
Trevor van Riemsdyk: Injured Reserve (lower body)
Over 0.5 without him: 2 of 10; with him: 2 of 5 (15 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Ryan Graves: Injured Reserve (knee)
Over 0.5 without him: 14 of 67; with him: 5 of 22 (89 games as teammates)

Splits

Over 0.5 · L20 · counts, not in order

No game against BOS in his last 20; Over 0.5 cleared in 3 of 6 against BOS on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Over 0.5 · L20

Erik KarlssonD
Sidney CrosbyC
Bryan RustRWInjured Reserve
Trevor van RiemsdykDInjured Reserve
Ryan GravesDInjured Reserve

The three skaters with the most points a game among those playing 12+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Penguins count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs BOS

Goals: 1 in 15.4 min, Mar 8 (home)

Over 0.5 hit in 3 of 6 games against BOS on record

L20 · Without Rust · Over 0.5

Average: 0.5; ±0 vs line
Median: 0; −0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 38%; 3 of 8
Price implies: 30%; at +230
Books’ fair: 28%; margin removed
Time on ice: 17.1; 8 games · 14.3 in 2025–26

Research, not a pick. We have no number of our own on this line yet; the market makes the Over 0.5 28%.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L20 · Without Rust

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L20
+2306 books	−3402 books	3/8
+13005 books	—	1/8
+80004 books	—	0/8

Compare 6 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 0.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 0.5 Goals, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 0.5	Under 0.5
DraftKings5 min ago	+245Best	—
FanDuel1 min ago	+235	−340
Pinnacle5 min ago	+235	−337Best
Bally Bet5 min ago	+230	—
betPARX1 min ago	+230	—
BetRivers1 min ago	+230	—
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 4:09 PM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

0.5

Over: +240 → +230 since first seen

Tommy Novak's full game log and splits