Tommy Novak

Pittsburgh Penguins · C · #18

BOS @ PIT · Live

Over Under1.5

Over 1.5 Shots on Goal, typical price −1553 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

63%5 of 8L20 · Without Rust

Over 1.5 Shots on Goal cleared in 5 of 8 games without Bryan Rust (his last 20 games).

vs PHI, 2026-04-20: 3, cleared, 13.2 min (not counted)
at PHI, 2026-04-22: 1, missed, 12.7 min (not counted)
at PHI, 2026-04-25: 0, missed, 13 min (not counted)
vs PHI, 2026-04-27: 1, missed, 14.1 min (not counted)
at PHI, 2026-04-29: 2, cleared, 17.4 min (not counted)
at PHI, 2026-09-30: 0, missed, 16.1 min
vs MTL, 2026-10-03: 3, cleared, 14.7 min
vs WPG, 2026-10-05: 2, cleared, 15.2 min
at WSH, 2026-10-07: 3, cleared, 15.3 min (not counted)
at CBJ, 2026-10-09: 1, missed, 14.6 min (not counted)
vs DAL, 2026-10-10: 1, missed, 15.7 min (not counted)
at CHI, 2026-10-13: 0, missed, 16.6 min (not counted)
at COL, 2026-10-16: 4, cleared, 15.3 min (not counted)
at VGK, 2026-10-17: 1, missed, 12.7 min (not counted)
at UTAH, 2026-10-19: 1, missed, 13.1 min (not counted)
vs FLA, 2026-10-22: 0, missed, 16.6 min
vs NSH, 2026-10-24: 2, cleared, 19.5 min
vs UTAH, 2026-10-29: 1, missed, 17.1 min
at MTL, 2026-10-31: 3, cleared, 18 min
vs VGK, 2026-11-03: 5, cleared, 19.2 min

ClearedMissedThe 1.5 linehis 2026–27 time on ice

What's different yesterday

Over 1.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

YesterdayTeammate out
Bryan Rust: Injured Reserve (lower body)
Over 1.5 without him: 7 of 16; with him: 37 of 85 (101 games as teammates)
YesterdayOpposing goalie
Michael DiPietro (Confirmed)
Saves: 118 of 127 (.929) over his last 5 games · 3 of BOS's last 10 starts · Jeremy Swayman started 7
Teammate out
Trevor van Riemsdyk: Injured Reserve (lower body)
Over 1.5 without him: 4 of 10; with him: 3 of 5 (15 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Ryan Graves: Injured Reserve (knee)
Over 1.5 without him: 30 of 67; with him: 10 of 22 (89 games as teammates)

Splits

Over 1.5 · L20 · counts, not in order

No game against BOS in his last 20; Over 1.5 cleared in 3 of 6 against BOS on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Over 1.5 · L20

Erik KarlssonD
Sidney CrosbyC
Bryan RustRWInjured Reserve
Trevor van RiemsdykDInjured Reserve
Ryan GravesDInjured Reserve

The three skaters with the most points a game among those playing 12+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out yesterday. Only games they were teammates on the Penguins count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs BOS

Shots on Goal: 1 in 15.4 min, Mar 8 (home)

Over 1.5 hit in 3 of 6 games against BOS on record

L20 · Without Rust · Over 1.5

Average: 2; +0.5 vs line
Median: 2; +0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 63%; 5 of 8
Price implies: 61%; at −155
Books’ fair: 57%; margin removed
Time on ice: 17.1; 8 games · 14.3 in 2025–26

Research, not a pick. We have no number of our own on this line yet; the market makes the Over 1.5 57%.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L20 · Without Rust

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L20
−7501 book	—	6/8
−1553 books	+1103 books	5/8
+1651 book	—	3/8
+4001 book	—	1/8
+10001 book	—	1/8

Compare 3 sportsbooks and 1 pick'em app at 1.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 1.5 Shots on Goal, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 1.5	Under 1.5
Pinnacle12 hr ago	−146Best	+110
Bally Bet12 hr ago	−155	+110
DraftKings12 hr ago	−175	+130Best
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 7:09 PM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

1.5

Over: −160 → −155 since first seen

Tommy Novak's full game log and splits

This page last updated 7:10 PM ET.