Tim Stutzle
OTT @ BUF · Today 7:30 PM
What's different today
Over 2.5 · facts from past games, not a pickTodayOpposing goalie
Colten Ellis (Expected)
Saves: 232 of 258 (.899) over his last 10 games · 3 of BUF's last 10 starts · Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen started 7
Teammate out
William Eklund: Injured Reserve (ankle)
Over 2.5 without him: 3 of 12; with him: 1 of 4 (16 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Warren Foegele: Injured Reserve (knee)
Over 2.5 without him: 1 of 3; with him: 11 of 36 (39 games as teammates)
Defense vs forwards
BUF allow 20.6 shots on goal a game to forwards: 10th most of 32
14 games · last 10 games: 22.7, 5th most
Game log against Over 2.5
20%2 of 10L10
Over 2.5 Shots on Goal cleared in 2 of his last 10 games (1 of 5 on the road).
Splits
Over 2.5 · L10 · counts, not in orderNo game against BUF in his last 10; Over 2.5 cleared in 4 of 8 against BUF on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.
With or without
Over 2.5 · L10Drake BathersonRW
Jake SandersonD
Shane PintoC
William EklundLWInjured Reserve
Warren FoegeleLWInjured Reserve
The three skaters with the most points a game among those playing 12+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Senators count; “without” is a game he didn't play.
Last vs BUF
Shots on Goal: 2 in 20 min, Apr 2 (home)
Over 2.5 hit in 4 of 8 games against BUF on record
L10 · Over 2.5
- Average
- 2.2
- −0.3 vs line
- Median
- 1
- −1.5 vs line
- Hit rate
- 20%
- 2 of 10
- Price implies
- 45%
- at +120
- Books’ fair
- 42%
- margin removed
- Time on ice
- 22.1
- 10 games · 20.5 in 2025–26
Research, not a pick. We have no number of our own on this line yet; the market makes the Over 2.5 42%.
Lines posted now
Over hits, L10| Line | Over | Under | L10 |
|---|---|---|---|
| −16002 books | — | 10/10 | |
| −2602 books | — | 4/10 | |
| +1203 books | −1563 books | 2/10 | |
| +2902 books | — | 2/10 | |
| +6702 books | — | 2/10 | |
| +20001 book | — | 1/10 |
Compare 3 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 2.5
| Sportsbook · read | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings13 min ago | +140Best | −185 |
| FanDuel1 min ago | +120 | −156Best |
| Pinnacle13 min ago | +120 | −156Best |
| Sleeperpick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
| Underdogpick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
Prices as of 4:30 AM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.
The consensus line
2.5Over: No move since first seen