Tim Stutzle

Ottawa Senators · C · #18

OTT @ BUF · Today 7:30 PM

Over Under1.5

Under 1.5 Points, typical price −2402 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

What's different today

Under 1.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

TodayOpposing goalie
Colten Ellis (Expected)
Saves: 232 of 258 (.899) over his last 10 games · 3 of BUF's last 10 starts · Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen started 7
Teammate out
William Eklund: Injured Reserve (ankle)
Under 1.5 without him: 7 of 12; with him: 2 of 4 (16 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Warren Foegele: Injured Reserve (knee)
Under 1.5 without him: 1 of 3; with him: 27 of 36 (39 games as teammates)
Defense vs forwards
BUF allow 7.21 points a game to forwards: 7th most of 32
14 games · last 10 games: 6.70, 12th most

70%7 of 10L10

Under 1.5 Points hit in 7 of his last 10 games (3 of 5 on the road).

vs STL, 2026-10-13: 1, hit, 22.1 min
vs NYI, 2026-10-15: 0, hit, 23.8 min
at PHI, 2026-10-17: 1, hit, 23.1 min
vs FLA, 2026-10-21: 2, missed, 19.7 min
vs SJ, 2026-10-22: 1, hit, 22.9 min
vs NYR, 2026-10-24: 1, hit, 20.6 min
at VGK, 2026-10-27: 0, hit, 22.8 min
at LA, 2026-10-29: 3, missed, 22.4 min
at SJ, 2026-10-31: 2, missed, 20.2 min
at ANA, 2026-11-01: 0, hit, 22.9 min

Under hitMissedThe 1.5 linehis 2026–27 time on ice

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 0–2 points.

Splits

Under 1.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against BUF in his last 10; Under 1.5 hit in 8 of 8 against BUF on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Under 1.5 · L10

Drake BathersonRW
Jake SandersonD
Shane PintoC
William EklundLWInjured Reserve
Warren FoegeleLWInjured Reserve

The three skaters with the most points a game among those playing 12+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Senators count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs BUF

Points: 0 in 20 min, Apr 2 (home)

Under 1.5 hit in 8 of 8 games against BUF on record

L10 · Under 1.5

Average: 1.1; −0.4 vs line
Median: 1; −0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 70%; 7 of 10
Price implies: 71%; at −240
Books’ fair: 66%; margin removed
Our chance: 66%; estimate · fair −191

Research, not a pick. At −240 the price is worse than our fair −191, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−2602 books	pick'em only	3/10
+1752 books	−2401 book	7/10
+6002 books	—	9/10

Compare 2 sportsbooks and 1 pick'em app at 1.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 1.5 Points, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 1.5	Under 1.5
DraftKings8 min ago	+175	−240Best
FanDuel1 min ago	+190Best	—
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 4:10 AM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

1.5

Under isn't priced at 1.5 right now.

Tim Stutzle's full game log and splits