Tage Thompson

Buffalo Sabres · C · #72

CBJ @ BUF · Today 7:00 PM

Over Under1.5

Under 1.5 Points, typical price −2352 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

70%7 of 10L10

Under 1.5 Points hit in 7 of his last 10 games (2 of 3 at home).

vs FLA, 2026-10-12: 2, missed, 18 min
at MTL, 2026-10-13: 0, hit, 22.4 min
at TOR, 2026-10-15: 1, hit, 21.2 min
at MTL, 2026-10-17: 1, hit, 19.3 min
vs PHI, 2026-10-21: 0, hit, 20.1 min
at WSH, 2026-10-24: 0, hit, 17 min
at SJ, 2026-10-27: 1, hit, 17.2 min
at ANA, 2026-10-29: 5, missed, 17.8 min
at LA, 2026-10-31: 2, missed, 20.2 min
vs OTT, 2026-11-04: 1, hit, 19.6 min

Under hitMissedThe 1.5 linehis 2026–27 time on ice

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 0–3 points.

What's different today

Under 1.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

TodayOpposing goalie
Cam Talbot (Expected); he started the day before too
Saves: 206 of 232 (.888) over his last 10 games · 6 of CBJ's last 10 starts
Teammate out
Konsta Helenius: Out (upper body)
Under 1.5 without him: 28 of 38; with him: 18 of 24 (62 games as teammates)
Defense vs forwards
CBJ allow 6.21 points a game to forwards: 19th most of 32
14 games · last 10 games: 6.00, 21st most
Time on ice
Last 5: 18.4 min · 2026–27: 19.4 (15 games)
Power play: 2.9 min last 5 · 3.5 2026–27

Splits

Under 1.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against CBJ in his last 10; Under 1.5 hit in 6 of 6 against CBJ on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Under 1.5 · L10

Rasmus DahlinD
Zach BensonLW
Jack QuinnRW
Konsta HeleniusCOut

The three skaters with the most points a game among those playing 12+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Sabres count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs CBJ

Points: 0 in 19.8 min, Oct 1 (away)

Under 1.5 hit in 6 of 6 games against CBJ on record

L10 · Under 1.5

Average: 1.3; −0.2 vs line
Median: 1; −0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 70%; 7 of 10
Price implies: 70%; at −235
Books’ fair: 65%; margin removed
Our chance: 67%; estimate · fair −201

Research, not a pick. At −235 the price is worse than our fair −201, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−2552 books	pick'em only	3/10
+1702 books	−2351 book	7/10
+6002 books	—	9/10

Compare 2 sportsbooks and 1 pick'em app at 1.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 1.5 Points, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 1.5	Under 1.5
DraftKings8 min ago	+170	−235Best
FanDuel2 min ago	+200Best	—
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 4:50 AM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

1.5

Under isn't priced at 1.5 right now.

Tage Thompson's full game log and splits