Tage Thompson

Buffalo Sabres · C · #72

OTT @ BUF · Today 7:30 PM

Over Under0.5

Under 0.5 Assists, typical price −1353 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

What's different today

Under 0.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Teammate out
Konsta Helenius: Out (upper body)
Under 0.5 without him: 23 of 37; with him: 13 of 24 (61 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Conor Timmins: Injured Reserve (lower body)
Under 0.5 without him: 33 of 57; with him: 30 of 51 (108 games as teammates)
Opposing goalie
Samuel Ersson (Expected)
Saves: 177 of 204 (.868) over his last 10 games · 4 of OTT's last 10 starts
Defense vs forwards
OTT allow 3.50 assists a game to forwards: 20th most of 32
16 games · last 10 games: 4.10, 9th most

60%6 of 10L10

Under 0.5 Assists hit in 6 of his last 10 games (2 of 3 at home).

vs UTAH, 2026-10-10: 0, hit, 19.9 min
vs FLA, 2026-10-12: 1, missed, 18 min
at MTL, 2026-10-13: 0, hit, 22.4 min
at TOR, 2026-10-15: 1, missed, 21.2 min
at MTL, 2026-10-17: 0, hit, 19.3 min
vs PHI, 2026-10-21: 0, hit, 20.1 min
at WSH, 2026-10-24: 0, hit, 17 min
at SJ, 2026-10-27: 1, missed, 17.2 min
at ANA, 2026-10-29: 2, missed, 17.8 min
at LA, 2026-10-31: 0, hit, 20.2 min

Under hitMissedThe 0.5 linehis 2026–27 time on ice

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 0–1 assists.

Splits

Under 0.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against OTT in his last 10; Under 0.5 hit in 6 of 8 against OTT on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Under 0.5 · L10

Rasmus DahlinD
Zach BensonLW
Jack QuinnRW
Konsta HeleniusCOut
Conor TimminsDInjured Reserve

The three skaters with the most points a game among those playing 12+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Sabres count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs OTT

Assists: 0 in 17.2 min, Apr 2 (away)

Under 0.5 hit in 6 of 8 games against OTT on record

L10 · Under 0.5

Average: 0.5; ±0 vs line
Median: 0; −0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 60%; 6 of 10
Price implies: 57%; at −135
Books’ fair: 54%; margin removed
Our chance: 57%; estimate · fair −131

Research, not a pick. At −135 the price is worse than our fair −131, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
+1023 books	−1351 book	6/10
+5502 books	—	9/10
+17002 books	—	10/10

Compare 3 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 0.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 0.5 Assists, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 0.5	Under 0.5
Pinnacle3 min ago	+102	−135Best
Bovada3 min ago	+104Best	—
FanDuel3 min ago	+102	—
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 2:45 AM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

0.5

Under isn't priced at 0.5 right now.

Tage Thompson's full game log and splits