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Tage Thompson

Buffalo Sabres · C · #72

OTT @ BUF · Tomorrow 7:30 PM
OverUnder3.5
Over 3.5 Shots on Goal, typical price +1221 sportsbook · consensus lineUpdated

What's different tonight

Over 3.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

  • Teammate out

    Konsta Helenius: Out (upper body)

    Over 3.5 without him: 15 of 37; with him: 14 of 24 (61 games as teammates)

  • Teammate out

    Conor Timmins: Injured Reserve (lower body)

    Over 3.5 without him: 27 of 57; with him: 25 of 51 (108 games as teammates)

  • Opposing goalie

    Samuel Ersson (Expected)

    Saves: 177 of 204 (.868) over his last 10 games · 4 of OTT's last 10 starts

  • Defense vs forwards

    OTT allow 20.4 shots on goal a game to forwards: 16th most of 32

    16 games · last 10 games: 21.1, 9th most

Game log against Over 3.5

60%6 of 10L10

Over 3.5 Shots on Goal cleared in 6 of his last 10 games (1 of 3 at home).

  1. vs UTAH, 2026-10-10: 6, cleared, 19.9 min
  2. vs FLA, 2026-10-12: 1, missed, 18 min
  3. at MTL, 2026-10-13: 1, missed, 22.4 min
  4. at TOR, 2026-10-15: 6, cleared, 21.2 min
  5. at MTL, 2026-10-17: 5, cleared, 19.3 min
  6. vs PHI, 2026-10-21: 3, missed, 20.1 min
  7. at WSH, 2026-10-24: 0, missed, 17 min
  8. at SJ, 2026-10-27: 6, cleared, 17.2 min
  9. at ANA, 2026-10-29: 4, cleared, 17.8 min
  10. at LA, 2026-10-31: 8, cleared, 20.2 min
ClearedMissedThe 3.5 linehis 2026–27 time on ice

Splits

Over 3.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against OTT in his last 10; Over 3.5 cleared in 1 of 8 against OTT on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Over 3.5 · L10

  • Rasmus DahlinD

  • Zach BensonLW

  • Jack QuinnRW

  • Konsta HeleniusCOut

  • Conor TimminsDInjured Reserve

The three skaters with the most points a game among those playing 12+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out tonight. Only games they were teammates on the Sabres count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs OTT

Shots on Goal: 2 in 17.2 min, Apr 2 (away)

Over 3.5 hit in 1 of 8 games against OTT on record

L10 · Over 3.5

Average
4
+0.5 vs line
Median
4.5
+1 vs line
Hit rate
60%
6 of 10
Price implies
45%
at +122
Books’ fair
42%
margin removed
Time on ice
19.3
10 games · 19.3 in 2025–26

Research, not a pick. We have no number of our own on this line yet; the market makes the Over 3.5 42%.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10
Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
LineOverUnderL10
−6601 book—7/10
−2051 book—7/10
+1221 book−1601 book6/10
+2651 book—5/10
+5501 book—4/10
Compare 1 sportsbook at 3.5
Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 3.5 Shots on Goal, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · readOver 3.5Under 3.5
FanDuel3 min ago+122Best−160Best

Prices as of 9:54 PM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

3.5

Over +100 → +122 since first seen

Tage Thompson's full game log and splits