T.J. Hughes

Colorado Avalanche · RW · #13

COL @ CBJ · Today 7:00 PM

Over Under1.5

Over 1.5 Shots on Goal, typical price −1256 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

What's different tonight

Over 1.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

TonightRest · back-to-back
Avalanche played last night (at CHI): a back-to-back
Teammate out
Josh Manson: Out (ankle)
Over 1.5 without him: 2 of 2; with him: 9 of 13 (15 games as teammates). A small sample.
Opposing goalie
Cam Talbot (Confirmed)
Saves: 178 of 207 (.860) over his last 10 games · 5 of CBJ's last 10 starts
Defense vs forwards
CBJ allow 18.9 shots on goal a game to forwards: 22nd most of 32
12 games · last 10 games: 18.3, 24th most

70%7 of 10L10

Over 1.5 Shots on Goal cleared in 7 of his last 10 games (3 of 5 on the road).

at DAL, 2026-10-13: 1, missed, 13.1 min
vs DAL, 2026-10-14: 0, missed, 14.5 min
vs PIT, 2026-10-16: 2, cleared, 12.5 min
at PHI, 2026-10-19: 2, cleared, 16.9 min
at NJ, 2026-10-20: 2, cleared, 15.7 min
vs TB, 2026-10-23: 4, cleared, 13.2 min
at NSH, 2026-10-25: 1, missed, 17.3 min
vs NJ, 2026-10-28: 2, cleared, 13.2 min
vs CGY, 2026-10-31: 2, cleared, 17 min
at CHI, 2026-11-02: 3, cleared, 17.2 min

ClearedMissedThe 1.5 linehis 2026–27 time on ice

Our model's range for tonight: a typical night lands 0–4 shots on goal.

Splits

Over 1.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against CBJ on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Over 1.5 · L10

Nathan MacKinnonC
Martin NecasC
Devon ToewsD
Josh MansonDOut

The three skaters with the most points a game among those playing 12+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out tonight. Only games they were teammates on the Avalanche count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs CBJ

Hughes didn't play the Jan 10 meeting

L10 · Over 1.5

Average: 1.9; +0.4 vs line
Median: 2; +0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 70%; 7 of 10
Price implies: 56%; at −125
Books’ fair: 52%; margin removed
Our chance: 61%; estimate · fair −153

Research, not a pick. At −110 (the best of 6 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −153, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge: props on our numbers have lost money since Oct 7.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−5603 books	—	9/10
−1256 books	−1074 books	7/10
+2803 books	—	2/10
+6501 book	—	1/10
+17001 book	—	0/10

Compare 6 sportsbooks and 3 pick'em apps at 1.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 1.5 Shots on Goal, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 1.5	Under 1.5
Bovada5 min ago	−110Best	—
FanDuel5 min ago	−110Best	−118
DraftKings13 min ago	−115	−115
Bally Bet5 min ago	−137	+100Best
betPARX4 min ago	−137	+100Best
BetRivers4 min ago	−137	—
PrizePickspick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 4:53 PM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

1.5

Over −175 → −125 since first seen

T.J. Hughes's full game log and splits