Simon Holmstrom

New York Islanders · RW · #92

NJ @ NYI · Today 7:00 PM

Over Under1.5

Over 1.5 Shots on Goal, typical price −1207 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

60%9 of 15L20 · Without Barzal

Over 1.5 Shots on Goal cleared in 9 of 15 games without Mathew Barzal (his last 20 games).

at CAR, 2026-04-04: 0, missed, 16 min (not counted)
vs TOR, 2026-04-09: 3, cleared, 16.4 min (not counted)
vs OTT, 2026-04-11: 0, missed, 18.7 min (not counted)
vs MTL, 2026-04-12: 1, missed, 16.1 min (not counted)
vs CAR, 2026-04-14: 1, missed, 16.6 min (not counted)
at TOR, 2026-09-30: 0, missed, 20.3 min
vs NJ, 2026-10-03: 1, missed, 16.8 min
at NYR, 2026-10-06: 1, missed, 15.2 min
vs CHI, 2026-10-08: 0, missed, 15.6 min
vs TB, 2026-10-10: 0, missed, 13.3 min
vs VAN, 2026-10-13: 4, cleared, 13.3 min
at OTT, 2026-10-15: 1, missed, 17 min
at TOR, 2026-10-17: 2, cleared, 20 min
vs ANA, 2026-10-20: 3, cleared, 20.2 min
vs LA, 2026-10-22: 3, cleared, 20.8 min
at DAL, 2026-10-25: 2, cleared, 19 min
at NSH, 2026-10-27: 3, cleared, 25 min
at MIN, 2026-10-29: 2, cleared, 20.3 min
vs EDM, 2026-10-31: 3, cleared, 20.5 min
vs CAR, 2026-11-05: 2, cleared, 19.8 min

ClearedMissedThe 1.5 linehis 2026–27 time on ice

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 0–4 shots on goal.

What's different today

Over 1.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

TodayTeammate out
Mathew Barzal: Injured Reserve (knee)
Over 1.5 without him: 10 of 16; with him: 28 of 78 (94 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Matias Maccelli: Injured Reserve (lower body)
Over 1.5 without him: 7 of 7; with him: 2 of 8 (15 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Calum Ritchie: Injured Reserve (lower body)
Over 1.5 without him: 10 of 13; with him: 25 of 71 (84 games as teammates)
Opposing goalie
Connor Hellebuyck (Expected)
Saves: 205 of 234 (.876) over his last 10 games · 4 of NJ's last 10 starts

Splits

Over 1.5 · L20 · counts, not in order

Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Over 1.5 · L20

Matthew SchaeferD
Mathew BarzalCInjured Reserve
Bo HorvatC
Matias MaccelliLWInjured Reserve
Calum RitchieCInjured Reserve

The three skaters with the most points a game among those playing 12+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Islanders count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs NJ

Shots on Goal: 1 in 16.8 min, Oct 3 (home)

Over 1.5 hit in 4 of 9 games against NJ on record

L20 · Without Barzal · Over 1.5

Average: 1.8; +0.3 vs line
Median: 2; +0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 60%; 9 of 15
Price implies: 55%; at −120
Books’ fair: 51%; margin removed
Our chance: 56%; estimate · fair −128

Research, not a pick. At −118 (the best of 7 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −128, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L20 · Without Barzal

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L20
−7803 books	—	12/15
−1207 books	−1184 books	9/15
+1953 books	—	5/15
+4602 books	—	1/15
+16001 book	—	0/15

Compare 7 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 1.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 1.5 Shots on Goal, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 1.5	Under 1.5
Bally Bet4 min ago	−118Best	−118
betPARX2 min ago	−118Best	−118
BetRivers4 min ago	−118Best	—
DraftKings4 min ago	−120	−110
Pinnacle4 min ago	−138	+104Best
FanDuel3 min ago	−156	—
Bovada3 min ago	−157	—
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 9:05 AM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

1.5

Over: −168 → −120 since first seen

Simon Holmstrom's full game log and splits