Simon Holmstrom

New York Islanders · RW · #92

NJ @ NYI · Today 7:00 PM

Over Under0.5

Under 0.5 Points, typical price −1357 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

67%10 of 15L20 · Without Barzal

Under 0.5 Points hit in 10 of 15 games without Mathew Barzal (his last 20 games).

at CAR, 2026-04-04: 1, missed, 16 min (not counted)
vs TOR, 2026-04-09: 0, hit, 16.4 min (not counted)
vs OTT, 2026-04-11: 0, hit, 18.7 min (not counted)
vs MTL, 2026-04-12: 0, hit, 16.1 min (not counted)
vs CAR, 2026-04-14: 0, hit, 16.6 min (not counted)
at TOR, 2026-09-30: 0, hit, 20.3 min
vs NJ, 2026-10-03: 2, missed, 16.8 min
at NYR, 2026-10-06: 0, hit, 15.2 min
vs CHI, 2026-10-08: 0, hit, 15.6 min
vs TB, 2026-10-10: 0, hit, 13.3 min
vs VAN, 2026-10-13: 0, hit, 13.3 min
at OTT, 2026-10-15: 0, hit, 17 min
at TOR, 2026-10-17: 2, missed, 20 min
vs ANA, 2026-10-20: 1, missed, 20.2 min
vs LA, 2026-10-22: 0, hit, 20.8 min
at DAL, 2026-10-25: 0, hit, 19 min
at NSH, 2026-10-27: 1, missed, 25 min
at MIN, 2026-10-29: 1, missed, 20.3 min
vs EDM, 2026-10-31: 0, hit, 20.5 min
vs CAR, 2026-11-05: 0, hit, 19.8 min

Under hitMissedThe 0.5 linehis 2026–27 time on ice

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 0–1 points.

What's different today

Under 0.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

TodayTeammate out
Mathew Barzal: Injured Reserve (knee)
Under 0.5 without him: 10 of 16; with him: 48 of 78 (94 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Matias Maccelli: Injured Reserve (lower body)
Under 0.5 without him: 4 of 7; with him: 6 of 8 (15 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Calum Ritchie: Injured Reserve (lower body)
Under 0.5 without him: 7 of 13; with him: 46 of 71 (84 games as teammates)
Opposing goalie
Connor Hellebuyck (Expected)
Saves: 205 of 234 (.876) over his last 10 games · 4 of NJ's last 10 starts

Splits

Under 0.5 · L20 · counts, not in order

Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Under 0.5 · L20

Matthew SchaeferD
Mathew BarzalCInjured Reserve
Bo HorvatC
Matias MaccelliLWInjured Reserve
Calum RitchieCInjured Reserve

The three skaters with the most points a game among those playing 12+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Islanders count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs NJ

Points: 2 in 16.8 min, Oct 3 (home)

Under 0.5 hit in 5 of 9 games against NJ on record

L20 · Without Barzal · Under 0.5

Average: 0.5; −0 vs line
Median: 0; −0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 67%; 10 of 15
Price implies: 57%; at −135
Books’ fair: 53%; margin removed
Our chance: 58%; estimate · fair −136

Research, not a pick. At −135 (the best of 2 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −136, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L20 · Without Barzal

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L20
−1037 books	−1352 books	10/15
+4406 books	—	13/15
+18001 book	—	15/15

Compare 7 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 0.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 0.5 Points, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 0.5	Under 0.5
DraftKings6 min ago	+100	−135Best
Pinnacle6 min ago	+100	−135Best
Bally Bet6 min ago	−107	—
betPARX5 min ago	−107	—
BetRivers6 min ago	−107	—
Bovada5 min ago	−103	—
FanDuel5 min ago	+112Best	—
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 9:54 AM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

0.5

Under isn't priced at 0.5 right now.

Simon Holmstrom's full game log and splits