Shane Pinto

Ottawa Senators · C · #12

OTT @ BUF · Live

Over Under1.5

Over 1.5 Shots on Goal, typical price −1903 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

60%6 of 10L10

Over 1.5 Shots on Goal cleared in 6 of his last 10 games (2 of 5 on the road).

vs STL, 2026-10-13: 1, missed, 18.3 min
vs NYI, 2026-10-15: 2, cleared, 17.1 min
at PHI, 2026-10-17: 1, missed, 18.6 min
vs FLA, 2026-10-21: 2, cleared, 20.5 min
vs SJ, 2026-10-22: 4, cleared, 20.3 min
vs NYR, 2026-10-24: 2, cleared, 19.2 min
at VGK, 2026-10-27: 4, cleared, 23.1 min
at LA, 2026-10-29: 2, cleared, 22 min
at SJ, 2026-10-31: 1, missed, 17.1 min
at ANA, 2026-11-01: 1, missed, 19 min

ClearedMissedThe 1.5 linehis 2026–27 time on ice

Our model's range for yesterday's game: a typical game lands 0–4 shots on goal.

What's different yesterday

Over 1.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

YesterdayOpposing goalie
Colten Ellis (Confirmed)
Saves: 232 of 258 (.899) over his last 10 games · 3 of BUF's last 10 starts · Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen started 7
Teammate out
William Eklund: Injured Reserve (ankle)
Over 1.5 without him: 6 of 12; with him: 3 of 4 (16 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Warren Foegele: Injured Reserve (knee)
Over 1.5 without him: 1 of 3; with him: 25 of 38 (41 games as teammates)
Defense vs forwards
BUF allow 20.6 shots on goal a game to forwards: 10th most of 32
14 games · last 10 games: 22.7, 5th most

Splits

Over 1.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against BUF in his last 10; Over 1.5 cleared in 5 of 6 against BUF on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Over 1.5 · L10

Tim StutzleC
Drake BathersonRW
Jake SandersonD
William EklundLWInjured Reserve
Warren FoegeleLWInjured Reserve

The three skaters with the most points a game among those playing 12+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out yesterday. Only games they were teammates on the Senators count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs BUF

Shots on Goal: 3 in 20.2 min, Apr 2 (home)

Over 1.5 hit in 5 of 6 games against BUF on record

L10 · Over 1.5

Average: 2; +0.5 vs line
Median: 2; +0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 60%; 6 of 10
Price implies: 66%; at −190
Books’ fair: 60%; margin removed
Our chance: 59%; estimate · fair −141

Research, not a pick. At −174 (the best of 3 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −141, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−8001 book	—	10/10
−1903 books	+1323 books	6/10
+1451 book	—	2/10
+3501 book	—	2/10
+8501 book	—	0/10
+20001 book	—	0/10

Compare 3 sportsbooks and 1 pick'em app at 1.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 1.5 Shots on Goal, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 1.5	Under 1.5
Pinnacle22 hr ago	−174Best	+130
Bally Bet22 hr ago	−190	+132
DraftKings22 hr ago	−190	+140Best
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 7:43 PM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

1.5

−130 → −190 since first seen

Shane Pinto's full game log and splits

This page last updated 7:43 PM ET.