Shane Pinto

Ottawa Senators · C · #12

OTT @ BUF · Tomorrow 7:30 PM

Over Under0.5

Over 0.5 Goals, typical price +2756 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

What's different tonight

Over 0.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

TonightOpposing goalie
Colten Ellis (Expected)
Saves: 232 of 258 (.899) over his last 10 games · 3 of BUF's last 10 starts · Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen started 7
Teammate out
William Eklund: Injured Reserve (ankle)
Over 0.5 without him: 5 of 12; with him: 0 of 4 (16 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Warren Foegele: Injured Reserve (knee)
Over 0.5 without him: 2 of 3; with him: 10 of 38 (41 games as teammates)
Defense vs forwards
BUF allow 3.21 goals a game to forwards: 5th most of 32
14 games · last 10 games: 3.00, 8th most

40%4 of 10L10

Over 0.5 Goals cleared in 4 of his last 10 games (3 of 5 on the road).

vs STL, 2026-10-13: 0, missed, 18.3 min
vs NYI, 2026-10-15: 0, missed, 17.1 min
at PHI, 2026-10-17: 0, missed, 18.6 min
vs FLA, 2026-10-21: 1, cleared, 20.5 min
vs SJ, 2026-10-22: 0, missed, 20.3 min
vs NYR, 2026-10-24: 0, missed, 19.2 min
at VGK, 2026-10-27: 1, cleared, 23.1 min
at LA, 2026-10-29: 1, cleared, 22 min
at SJ, 2026-10-31: 1, cleared, 17.1 min
at ANA, 2026-11-01: 0, missed, 19 min

ClearedMissedThe 0.5 linehis 2026–27 time on ice

Splits

Over 0.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against BUF in his last 10; Over 0.5 cleared in 3 of 6 against BUF on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Over 0.5 · L10

Tim StutzleC
Drake BathersonRW
Jake SandersonD
William EklundLWInjured Reserve
Warren FoegeleLWInjured Reserve

The three skaters with the most points a game among those playing 12+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out tonight. Only games they were teammates on the Senators count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs BUF

Goals: 1 in 20.2 min, Apr 2 (home)

Over 0.5 hit in 3 of 6 games against BUF on record

L10 · Over 0.5

Average: 0.4; −0.1 vs line
Median: 0; −0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 40%; 4 of 10
Price implies: 27%; at +275
Books’ fair: 25%; margin removed
Time on ice: 19.5; 10 games · 18.9 in 2025–26

Research, not a pick. We have no number of our own on this line yet; the market makes the Over 0.5 25%.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
+2756 books	−4201 book	4/10
+20406 books	—	0/10
+180005 books	—	0/10

Compare 6 sportsbooks at 0.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 0.5 Goals, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 0.5	Under 0.5
FanDuel4 min ago	+280Best	−420Best
Bally Bet4 min ago	+275	—
betPARX6 min ago	+275	—
BetRivers4 min ago	+275	—
Bovada4 min ago	+270	—
DraftKings14 min ago	+260	—

Prices as of 10:59 PM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

0.5

Over No move since first seen

Shane Pinto's full game log and splits