Ryan Nugent-Hopkins

Edmonton Oilers · C · #93

VAN @ EDM · Today 10:00 PM

Over Under0.5

Over 0.5 Points, typical price −2155 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

70%7 of 10L10

Over 0.5 Points cleared in 7 of his last 10 games (5 of 6 at home).

vs ANA, 2026-04-28: 2, cleared, 19 min
at ANA, 2026-04-30: 0, missed, 16 min
vs CAR, 2026-10-22: 2, cleared, 21 min
vs TOR, 2026-10-24: 0, missed, 18.7 min
vs DET, 2026-10-26: 1, cleared, 21.9 min
vs CGY, 2026-10-28: 2, cleared, 18.4 min
at NYI, 2026-10-31: 2, cleared, 18.8 min
at NYR, 2026-11-01: 0, missed, 20.2 min
at NJ, 2026-11-03: 2, cleared, 19.5 min
vs ANA, 2026-11-05: 2, cleared, 19.5 min

ClearedMissedThe 0.5 linehis 2026–27 time on ice

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 0–2 points.

What's different today

Over 0.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

TodayDefense vs forwards
VAN allow 9.22 points a game to forwards: the most of 32
18 games · last 10 games: 9.30, the most
Teammate out
Matt Savoie: Injured Reserve (lower body)
Over 0.5 without him: 6 of 8; with him: 46 of 78 (86 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Zach Hyman: Injured Reserve (neck)
Over 0.5 without him: 18 of 33; with him: 41 of 68 (101 games as teammates)
Opposing goalie
Leevi Merilainen (Expected)
Saves: 271 of 307 (.883) over his last 10 games · 7 of VAN's last 10 starts

Splits

Over 0.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against VAN in his last 10; Over 0.5 cleared in 7 of 8 against VAN on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Over 0.5 · L10

Connor McDavidC
Evan BouchardD
Leon DraisaitlC
Matt SavoieCInjured Reserve
Zach HymanLWInjured Reserve

The three skaters with the most points a game among those playing 12+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Oilers count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs VAN

Nugent-Hopkins didn't play the Oct 1 meeting; points the last time Nugent-Hopkins faced them: 1 (Apr 16)

Over 0.5 hit in 7 of 8 games against VAN on record

L10 · Over 0.5

Average: 1.3; +0.8 vs line
Median: 2; +1.5 vs line
Hit rate: 70%; 7 of 10
Price implies: 68%; at −215
Books’ fair: 60%; margin removed
Our chance: 63%; estimate · fair −173

Research, not a pick. At −185 (the best of 5 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −173, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−2155 books	+1351 book	7/10
+2155 books	—	6/10
+6505 books	—	0/10

Compare 5 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 0.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 0.5 Points, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 0.5	Under 0.5
DraftKings5 min ago	−185Best	+135Best
FanDuel3 min ago	−210	—
Bally Bet4 min ago	−215	—
betPARX5 min ago	−215	—
BetRivers4 min ago	−215	—
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 11:20 AM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

0.5

No move since first seen

Ryan Nugent-Hopkins's full game log and splits