Ryan Nugent-Hopkins

Edmonton Oilers · C · #93

VAN @ EDM · Today 10:00 PM

Over Under2.5

Under 2.5 Shots on Goal, typical price −1826 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

80%8 of 10L10

Under 2.5 Shots on Goal hit in 8 of his last 10 games (4 of 6 at home).

vs ANA, 2026-04-28: 1, hit, 19 min
at ANA, 2026-04-30: 2, hit, 16 min
vs CAR, 2026-10-22: 4, missed, 21 min
vs TOR, 2026-10-24: 1, hit, 18.7 min
vs DET, 2026-10-26: 5, missed, 21.9 min
vs CGY, 2026-10-28: 2, hit, 18.4 min
at NYI, 2026-10-31: 2, hit, 18.8 min
at NYR, 2026-11-01: 0, hit, 20.2 min
at NJ, 2026-11-03: 1, hit, 19.5 min
vs ANA, 2026-11-05: 1, hit, 19.5 min

Under hitMissedThe 2.5 linehis 2026–27 time on ice

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 0–4 shots on goal.

What's different today

Under 2.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

TodayDefense vs forwards
VAN allow 24.0 shots on goal a game to forwards: the most of 32
18 games · last 10 games: 23.6, 2nd most
Teammate out
Matt Savoie: Injured Reserve (lower body)
Under 2.5 without him: 6 of 8; with him: 57 of 78 (86 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Zach Hyman: Injured Reserve (neck)
Under 2.5 without him: 27 of 33; with him: 45 of 68 (101 games as teammates)
Opposing goalie
Leevi Merilainen (Expected)
Saves: 271 of 307 (.883) over his last 10 games · 7 of VAN's last 10 starts

Splits

Under 2.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against VAN in his last 10; Under 2.5 hit in 5 of 8 against VAN on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Under 2.5 · L10

Connor McDavidC
Evan BouchardD
Leon DraisaitlC
Matt SavoieCInjured Reserve
Zach HymanLWInjured Reserve

The three skaters with the most points a game among those playing 12+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Oilers count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs VAN

Nugent-Hopkins didn't play the Oct 1 meeting; shots on goal the last time Nugent-Hopkins faced them: 4 (Apr 16)

Under 2.5 hit in 5 of 8 games against VAN on record

L10 · Under 2.5

Average: 1.9; −0.6 vs line
Median: 1.5; −1 vs line
Hit rate: 80%; 8 of 10
Price implies: 65%; at −182
Books’ fair: 60%; margin removed
Our chance: 65%; estimate · fair −186

Research, not a pick. At −170 (the best of 4 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −186, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−13003 books	—	1/10
−2353 books	—	5/10
pick'em only	pick'em only	5/10
+1286 books	−1824 books	8/10
+3403 books	—	8/10
+7001 book	—	9/10
+17001 book	—	10/10

Compare 6 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 2.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 2.5 Shots on Goal, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
DraftKings3 min ago	+125	−170Best
Bally Bet3 min ago	+128	−182
betPARX3 min ago	+128	−182
FanDuel2 min ago	+142Best	−188
BetRivers4 min ago	+128	—
Bovada8 min ago	+142Best	—
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 10:05 AM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

2.5

−188 → −182 since first seen

Ryan Nugent-Hopkins's full game log and splits