Oliver Ekman-Larsson

Toronto Maple Leafs · D · #95

UTAH @ TOR · Tue, Nov 3 7:00 PM

Over Under1.5

Over 1.5 Shots on Goal, typical price +1651 sportsbook · consensus lineUpdated

22%2 of 9L20 · Without Tavares

Over 1.5 Shots on Goal cleared in 2 of 9 games without John Tavares (his last 20 games).

at NYI, 2026-04-09: 1, missed, 15.9 min (not counted)
vs FLA, 2026-04-11: 1, missed, 21 min (not counted)
vs DAL, 2026-04-13: 0, missed, 22.5 min (not counted)
at OTT, 2026-04-15: 1, missed, 21.1 min (not counted)
vs MTL, 2026-09-29: 1, missed, 18.1 min (not counted)
vs NYI, 2026-09-30: 2, cleared, 15.5 min (not counted)
vs OTT, 2026-10-03: 0, missed, 17.1 min (not counted)
vs NSH, 2026-10-06: 0, missed, 17.5 min (not counted)
at VGK, 2026-10-08: 0, missed, 15.4 min (not counted)
at COL, 2026-10-10: 0, missed, 14.4 min
at UTAH, 2026-10-13: 0, missed, 17.7 min (not counted)
vs BUF, 2026-10-15: 0, missed, 19.6 min (not counted)
vs NYI, 2026-10-17: 0, missed, 18.7 min
vs SJ, 2026-10-19: 1, missed, 14.7 min
at CBJ, 2026-10-20: 1, missed, 23.3 min
vs NYR, 2026-10-22: 1, missed, 19.4 min
at EDM, 2026-10-24: 2, cleared, 19.2 min
at CGY, 2026-10-26: 3, cleared, 19.2 min
at SEA, 2026-10-28: 0, missed, 16.8 min
at VAN, 2026-10-31: 0, missed, 18.4 min

ClearedMissedThe 1.5 linehis 2026–27 time on ice

What's different on Tuesday

Over 1.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

TueTeammate out
John Tavares: Injured Reserve (lower body)
Over 1.5 without him: 2 of 9; with him: 32 of 92 (101 games as teammates)
TueDefense vs defensemen
UTAH allow 6.1 shots on goal a game to defensemen: 31st most of 32
15 games · last 10 games: 6.7, 25th most
Teammate out
Kirill Marchenko: Injured Reserve (lower body)
Over 1.5 without him: 0 of 2; with him: 3 of 14 (16 games as teammates). A small sample.
Teammate out
Max Domi: Injured Reserve (back)
Over 1.5 without him: 3 of 18; with him: 31 of 83 (101 games as teammates)

Splits

Over 1.5 · L20 · counts, not in order

Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Over 1.5 · L20

William NylanderRW
Auston MatthewsC
John TavaresCInjured Reserve
Kirill MarchenkoRWInjured Reserve
Max DomiCInjured Reserve

The three skaters with the most points a game among those playing 12+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out on Tuesday. Only games they were teammates on the Maple Leafs count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs UTAH

Shots on Goal: 0 in 17.7 min, Oct 13 (away)

Over 1.5 hit in 2 of 5 games against UTAH on record

L20 · Without Tavares · Over 1.5

Average: 0.9; −0.6 vs line
Median: 1; −0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 22%; 2 of 9
Price implies: 38%; at +165
Books’ fair: 35%; margin removed
Time on ice: 18.2; 9 games · 20.6 in 2025–26

Research, not a pick. We have no number of our own on this line yet; the market makes the Over 1.5 35%.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L20 · Without Tavares

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Line	Over	Under	L20
	+1651 book	−2401 book	2/9

Compare 1 sportsbook at 1.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 1.5 Shots on Goal, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 1.5	Under 1.5
Bally Bet3 days ago	+165Best	−240Best

Prices as of 10:14 AM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

1.5

Over: +112 → +165 since first seen

Oliver Ekman-Larsson's full game log and splits

This page last updated 10:14 AM ET.