Nick Schmaltz

Utah Mammoth · C · #8

UTAH @ OTT · Today 7:00 PM

Over Under0.5

Over 0.5 Points, typical price −1577 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

60%6 of 10L10

Over 0.5 Points cleared in 6 of his last 10 games (4 of 6 on the road).

at EDM, 2026-10-15: 2, cleared, 19.3 min
vs EDM, 2026-10-17: 0, missed, 17 min
vs PIT, 2026-10-19: 2, cleared, 17.7 min
at SEA, 2026-10-22: 0, missed, 17.8 min
vs TB, 2026-10-24: 0, missed, 15 min
vs MIN, 2026-10-27: 1, cleared, 18.5 min
at PIT, 2026-10-29: 0, missed, 15.4 min
at PHI, 2026-11-01: 2, cleared, 18.4 min
at TOR, 2026-11-03: 1, cleared, 16.9 min
at MTL, 2026-11-05: 3, cleared, 17.5 min

ClearedMissedThe 0.5 linehis 2026–27 time on ice

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 0–2 points.

What's different today

Over 0.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Teammate out
Kailer Yamamoto: Injured Reserve (upper body)
Over 0.5 without him: 24 of 31; with him: 37 of 74 (105 games as teammates)
Teammate out
John Marino: Injured Reserve (upper body)
Over 0.5 without him: 5 of 10; with him: 56 of 95 (105 games as teammates)
Opposing goalie
Samuel Ersson (Expected)
Saves: 186 of 210 (.886) over his last 10 games · 4 of OTT's last 10 starts
Defense vs forwards
OTT allow 6.18 points a game to forwards: 20th most of 32
17 games · last 10 games: 6.20, 17th most

Splits

Over 0.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against OTT in his last 10; Over 0.5 cleared in 1 of 4 against OTT on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Over 0.5 · L10

Mikhail SergachevD
Clayton KellerRW
Logan CooleyC
Kailer YamamotoRWInjured Reserve
John MarinoDInjured Reserve

The three skaters with the most points a game among those playing 12+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Mammoth count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs OTT

Points: 0 in 20.5 min, Jan 7 (home)

Over 0.5 hit in 1 of 4 games against OTT on record

L10 · Over 0.5

Average: 1.1; +0.6 vs line
Median: 1; +0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 60%; 6 of 10
Price implies: 61%; at −157
Books’ fair: 58%; margin removed
Our chance: 62%; estimate · fair −163

Research, not a pick. At −155 (the best of 7 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −163, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−1577 books	+1202 books	6/10
+3006 books	—	4/10
+10001 book	—	1/10

Compare 7 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 0.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 0.5 Points, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 0.5	Under 0.5
Bally Bet4 min ago	−155Best	—
betPARX5 min ago	−155Best	—
BetRivers5 min ago	−155Best	—
Bovada4 min ago	−157	—
DraftKings5 min ago	−160	+120Best
Pinnacle5 min ago	−160	+120Best
FanDuel4 min ago	−178	—
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 11:04 AM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

0.5

−172 → −157 since first seen

Nick Schmaltz's full game log and splits