Nick Schmaltz

Utah Mammoth · C · #8

UTAH @ MTL · Thu, Nov 5 7:00 PM

Over Under0.5

Over 0.5 Points, typical price −1735 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

60%6 of 10L10

Over 0.5 Points cleared in 6 of his last 10 games (3 of 5 on the road).

vs TOR, 2026-10-13: 1, cleared, 16.9 min
at EDM, 2026-10-15: 2, cleared, 19.3 min
vs EDM, 2026-10-17: 0, missed, 17 min
vs PIT, 2026-10-19: 2, cleared, 17.7 min
at SEA, 2026-10-22: 0, missed, 17.8 min
vs TB, 2026-10-24: 0, missed, 15 min
vs MIN, 2026-10-27: 1, cleared, 18.5 min
at PIT, 2026-10-29: 0, missed, 15.4 min
at PHI, 2026-11-01: 2, cleared, 18.4 min
at TOR, 2026-11-03: 1, cleared, 16.9 min

ClearedMissedThe 0.5 linehis 2026–27 time on ice

Our model's range for yesterday's game: a typical game lands 0–2 points.

What's different yesterday

Over 0.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

YesterdayOpposing goalie
Jakub Dobes (Confirmed)
Saves: 262 of 300 (.873) over his last 10 games · 3 of MTL's last 10 starts · Jacob Fowler started 7
Teammate out
Kailer Yamamoto: Out (upper body)
Over 0.5 without him: 23 of 30; with him: 37 of 74 (104 games as teammates)
Teammate out
John Marino: Injured Reserve (upper body)
Over 0.5 without him: 4 of 9; with him: 56 of 95 (104 games as teammates)
Defense vs forwards
MTL allow 6.13 points a game to forwards: 20th most of 32
15 games · last 10 games: 5.30, 28th most

Splits

Over 0.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against MTL in his last 10; Over 0.5 cleared in 2 of 4 against MTL on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Over 0.5 · L10

Clayton KellerRW
Mikhail SergachevD
Logan CooleyC
Kailer YamamotoRWOut
John MarinoDInjured Reserve

The three skaters with the most points a game among those playing 12+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out yesterday. Only games they were teammates on the Mammoth count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs MTL

Points: 0 in 23.2 min, Nov 26, 2025 (home)

Over 0.5 hit in 2 of 4 games against MTL on record

L10 · Over 0.5

Average: 0.9; +0.4 vs line
Median: 1; +0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 60%; 6 of 10
Price implies: 63%; at −173
Books’ fair: 57%; margin removed
Our chance: 59%; estimate · fair −145

Research, not a pick. At −152 (the best of 5 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −145, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−1735 books	+1142 books	6/10
+2704 books	—	3/10
+9004 books	—	0/10

Compare 5 sportsbooks and 1 pick'em app at 0.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 0.5 Points, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 0.5	Under 0.5
Pinnacle9 hr ago	−152Best	+114
DraftKings9 hr ago	−160	+115Best
Bovada9 hr ago	−173	—
Bally Bet9 hr ago	−175	—
BetRivers9 hr ago	−175	—
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 7:09 PM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

0.5

Over: −170 → −173 since first seen

Nick Schmaltz's full game log and splits

This page last updated 7:09 PM ET.