Nathan MacKinnon

Colorado Avalanche · C · #29

NSH @ COL · Today 9:30 PM

Over Under0.5

Over 0.5 Assists, typical price −2006 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

60%6 of 10L10

Over 0.5 Assists cleared in 6 of his last 10 games (3 of 5 at home).

vs DAL, 2026-10-14: 0, missed, 25.4 min
vs PIT, 2026-10-16: 3, cleared, 23 min
at PHI, 2026-10-19: 0, missed, 24.3 min
at NJ, 2026-10-20: 0, missed, 21.3 min
vs TB, 2026-10-23: 3, cleared, 18.2 min
at NSH, 2026-10-25: 1, cleared, 19.8 min
vs NJ, 2026-10-28: 0, missed, 19 min
vs CGY, 2026-10-31: 1, cleared, 19.1 min
at CHI, 2026-11-02: 1, cleared, 19.4 min
at CBJ, 2026-11-03: 2, cleared, 19.5 min

ClearedMissedThe 0.5 linehis 2026–27 time on ice

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 0–2 assists.

What's different today

Over 0.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Teammate out
Josh Manson: Out (ankle)
Over 0.5 without him: 6 of 9; with him: 54 of 100 (109 games as teammates)
Opposing goalie
Juuse Saros (Expected)
Saves: 280 of 308 (.909) over his last 10 games · 7 of NSH's last 10 starts
Defense vs forwards
NSH allow 3.47 assists a game to forwards: 20th most of 32
15 games · last 10 games: 3.50, 19th most
Time on ice
Last 5: 19.4 min · 2026–27: 20.5 (16 games)
Power play: 4.3 min last 5 · 4.1 2026–27

Splits

Over 0.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Over 0.5 · L10

Martin NecasC
Cale MakarD
Devon ToewsD
Josh MansonDOut

The three skaters with the most points a game among those playing 12+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Avalanche count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs NSH

Assists: 1 in 19.8 min, Oct 25 (away)

Over 0.5 hit in 7 of 9 games against NSH on record

L10 · Over 0.5

Average: 1.1; +0.6 vs line
Median: 1; +0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 60%; 6 of 10
Price implies: 67%; at −200
Books’ fair: 60%; margin removed
Our chance: 60%; estimate · fair −153

Research, not a pick. At −175 (the best of 6 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −153, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−2006 books	+1302 books	6/10
+2255 books	—	3/10
+9002 books	—	2/10

Compare 6 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 0.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 0.5 Assists, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 0.5	Under 0.5
DraftKings5 min ago	−175Best	+130
Pinnacle5 min ago	−176	+132Best
FanDuel1 min ago	−196	—
Bally Bet5 min ago	−200	—
betPARX1 min ago	−200	—
BetRivers3 min ago	−200	—
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 12:04 PM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

0.5

Over: −175 → −200 since first seen

Nathan MacKinnon's full game log and splits