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Mattias Samuelsson

Buffalo Sabres · D · #23

OTT @ BUF · Live
OverUnder1.5
Over 1.5 Shots on Goal, typical price +1321 sportsbook · consensus lineUpdated

Game log against Over 1.5

50%5 of 10L10

Over 1.5 Shots on Goal cleared in 5 of his last 10 games (1 of 3 at home).

  1. vs UTAH, 2026-10-10: 1, missed, 18.2 min
  2. vs FLA, 2026-10-12: 2, cleared, 27 min
  3. at MTL, 2026-10-13: 0, missed, 26.6 min
  4. at TOR, 2026-10-15: 3, cleared, 28.4 min
  5. at MTL, 2026-10-17: 2, cleared, 27 min
  6. vs PHI, 2026-10-21: 0, missed, 22.9 min
  7. at WSH, 2026-10-24: 1, missed, 25.5 min
  8. at SJ, 2026-10-27: 3, cleared, 24.1 min
  9. at ANA, 2026-10-29: 3, cleared, 25.5 min
  10. at LA, 2026-10-31: 1, missed, 26 min
ClearedMissedThe 1.5 linehis 2026–27 time on ice

What's different on Wednesday

Over 1.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

  • Teammate out

    Konsta Helenius: Out (upper body)

    Over 1.5 without him: 12 of 36; with him: 10 of 24 (60 games as teammates)

  • Opposing goalie

    Samuel Ersson (Confirmed)

    Saves: 177 of 204 (.868) over his last 10 games · 4 of OTT's last 10 starts

  • Defense vs defensemen

    OTT allow 6.6 shots on goal a game to defensemen: 26th most of 32

    16 games · last 10 games: 6.1, 30th most

  • Time on ice

    Last 5: 24.8 min · 2026–27: 23.9 (14 games)

    Power play: 0 min last 5 · 0.1 2026–27

Splits

Over 1.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against OTT in his last 10; Over 1.5 cleared in 3 of 6 against OTT on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Over 1.5 · L10

  • Tage ThompsonC

  • Rasmus DahlinD

  • Zach BensonLW

  • Konsta HeleniusCOut

The three skaters with the most points a game among those playing 12+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out on Wednesday. Only games they were teammates on the Sabres count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs OTT

Shots on Goal: 2 in 20.8 min, Apr 2 (away)

Over 1.5 hit in 3 of 6 games against OTT on record

L10 · Over 1.5

Average
1.6
+0.1 vs line
Median
1.5
±0 vs line
Hit rate
50%
5 of 10
Price implies
43%
at +132
Books’ fair
40%
margin removed
Time on ice
25.1
10 games · 22.8 in 2025–26

Research, not a pick. We have no number of our own on this line yet; the market makes the Over 1.5 40%.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10
Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
LineOverUnderL10
+1321 book−1901 book5/10
Compare 1 sportsbook and 1 pick'em app at 1.5
Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 1.5 Shots on Goal, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · readOver 1.5Under 1.5
Bally Bet36 hr ago+132Best−190Best
Underdogpick'em, posted nowLine posted, no price

Prices as of 7:43 PM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

1.5

Over: +138 → +132 since first seen

Mattias Samuelsson's full game log and splits

This page last updated 7:43 PM ET.