Mattias Samuelsson

Buffalo Sabres · D · #23

OTT @ BUF · Tomorrow 7:30 PM

Over Under0.5

Over 0.5 Goals, typical price +6505 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

What's different tonight

Over 0.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Teammate out
Konsta Helenius: Out (upper body)
Over 0.5 without him: 4 of 36; with him: 5 of 24 (60 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Conor Timmins: Injured Reserve (lower body)
Over 0.5 without him: 9 of 56; with him: 7 of 49 (105 games as teammates)
Opposing goalie
Samuel Ersson (Expected)
Saves: 177 of 204 (.868) over his last 10 games · 4 of OTT's last 10 starts
Defense vs defensemen
OTT allow 0.31 goals a game to defensemen: 25th most of 32
16 games · last 10 games: 0.40, 15th most

10%1 of 10L10

Over 0.5 Goals cleared in 1 of his last 10 games (0 of 3 at home).

vs UTAH, 2026-10-10: 0, missed, 18.2 min
vs FLA, 2026-10-12: 0, missed, 27 min
at MTL, 2026-10-13: 0, missed, 26.6 min
at TOR, 2026-10-15: 1, cleared, 28.4 min
at MTL, 2026-10-17: 0, missed, 27 min
vs PHI, 2026-10-21: 0, missed, 22.9 min
at WSH, 2026-10-24: 0, missed, 25.5 min
at SJ, 2026-10-27: 0, missed, 24.1 min
at ANA, 2026-10-29: 0, missed, 25.5 min
at LA, 2026-10-31: 0, missed, 26 min

ClearedMissedThe 0.5 linehis 2026–27 time on ice

Splits

Over 0.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against OTT in his last 10; Over 0.5 cleared in 1 of 6 against OTT on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Over 0.5 · L10

Tage ThompsonC
Rasmus DahlinD
Zach BensonLW
Konsta HeleniusCOut
Conor TimminsDInjured Reserve

The three skaters with the most points a game among those playing 12+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out tonight. Only games they were teammates on the Sabres count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs OTT

Goals: 1 in 20.8 min, Apr 2 (away)

Over 0.5 hit in 1 of 6 games against OTT on record

L10 · Over 0.5

Average: 0.1; −0.4 vs line
Median: 0; −0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 10%; 1 of 10
Price implies: 13%; at +650
Books’ fair: —; needs both sides
Time on ice: 25.1; 10 games · 22.8 in 2025–26

Research, not a pick. We have no number of our own on this line yet.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Line	Over	Under	L10
	+6505 books	—	1/10
	+90005 books	—	0/10

Compare 5 sportsbooks at 0.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 0.5 Goals, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 0.5	Under 0.5
Bally Bet3 min ago	+650Best	—
betPARX2 min ago	+650Best	—
BetRivers2 min ago	+650Best	—
FanDuel3 min ago	+650Best	—
Bovada2 min ago	+575	—

Prices as of 8:52 PM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

0.5

+700 → +650 since first seen

Mattias Samuelsson's full game log and splits