Matthew Schaefer

New York Islanders · D · #48

CAR @ NYI · Today 7:00 PM

Over Under2.5

Over 2.5 Shots on Goal, typical price −1206 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

57%8 of 14L20 · Without Barzal

Over 2.5 Shots on Goal cleared in 8 of 14 games without Mathew Barzal (his last 20 games).

vs PHI, 2026-04-03: 2, missed, 28.7 min (not counted)
at CAR, 2026-04-04: 1, missed, 27.2 min (not counted)
vs TOR, 2026-04-09: 3, cleared, 24.8 min (not counted)
vs OTT, 2026-04-11: 4, cleared, 24.9 min (not counted)
vs MTL, 2026-04-12: 4, cleared, 28 min (not counted)
vs CAR, 2026-04-14: 5, cleared, 24.2 min (not counted)
at TOR, 2026-09-30: 3, cleared, 27.8 min
vs NJ, 2026-10-03: 2, missed, 20.6 min
at NYR, 2026-10-06: 2, missed, 25.1 min
vs CHI, 2026-10-08: 4, cleared, 26.8 min
vs TB, 2026-10-10: 9, cleared, 27.1 min
vs VAN, 2026-10-13: 3, cleared, 25.4 min
at OTT, 2026-10-15: 3, cleared, 29.5 min
at TOR, 2026-10-17: 5, cleared, 24.4 min
vs ANA, 2026-10-20: 1, missed, 26.4 min
vs LA, 2026-10-22: 9, cleared, 29.4 min
at DAL, 2026-10-25: 1, missed, 26.3 min
at NSH, 2026-10-27: 2, missed, 32.3 min
at MIN, 2026-10-29: 6, cleared, 30 min
vs EDM, 2026-10-31: 2, missed, 24.6 min

ClearedMissedThe 2.5 linehis 2026–27 time on ice

What's different today

Over 2.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

TodayTeammate out
Mathew Barzal: Injured Reserve (knee)
Over 2.5 without him: 9 of 15; with him: 42 of 81 (96 games as teammates)
TodayDefense vs defensemen
CAR allow 5.1 shots on goal a game to defensemen: the fewest of 32
17 games · last 10 games: 4.7, the fewest
Teammate out
Matias Maccelli: Injured Reserve (lower body)
Over 2.5 without him: 2 of 6; with him: 6 of 8 (14 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Calum Ritchie: Injured Reserve (lower body)
Over 2.5 without him: 5 of 13; with him: 40 of 73 (86 games as teammates)

Splits

Over 2.5 · L20 · counts, not in order

Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Over 2.5 · L20

Mathew BarzalCInjured Reserve
Bo HorvatC
Matias MaccelliLWInjured Reserve
Calum RitchieCInjured Reserve
Alexander RomanovDInjured Reserve

The three skaters with the most points a game among those playing 12+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Islanders count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs CAR

Shots on Goal: 5 in 24.2 min, Apr 14 (home)

Over 2.5 hit in 2 of 3 games against CAR on record

L20 · Without Barzal · Over 2.5

Average: 3.7; +1.2 vs line
Median: 3; +0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 57%; 8 of 14
Price implies: 55%; at −120
Books’ fair: 51%; margin removed
Time on ice: 26.8; 14 games · 24.7 in 2025–26

Research, not a pick. We have no number of our own on this line yet; the market makes the Over 2.5 51%.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L20 · Without Barzal

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L20
−18001 book	—	14/14
−3702 books	—	12/14
−1206 books	−1105 books	8/14
+2002 books	—	5/14
+4502 books	—	4/14
+10001 book	—	3/14

Compare 6 sportsbooks and 3 pick'em apps at 2.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 2.5 Shots on Goal, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
FanDuel2 min ago	−118Best	−110
Bally Bet11 min ago	−120	−118
betPARX1 min ago	−120	−118
BetRivers3 min ago	−120	—
DraftKings11 min ago	−120	−110
Pinnacle11 min ago	−131	−101Best
PrizePickspick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 9:24 AM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

2.5

Over: −130 → −120 since first seen

Matthew Schaefer's full game log and splits