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Matt Coronato

Calgary Flames · RW · #27

CGY @ SEA · Today 10:00 PM
OverUnder2.5
Under 2.5 Shots on Goal, typical price −1302 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

What's different today

Under 2.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

  • TodayDefense vs forwards

    SEA allow 22.2 shots on goal a game to forwards: 3rd most of 32

    14 games · last 10 games: 23.0, 4th most

  • Teammate out

    Jonathan Huberdeau: Injured Reserve (hip)

    Under 2.5 without him: 21 of 41; with him: 29 of 49 (90 games as teammates)

  • Teammate out

    Connor Zary: Out (knee)

    Under 2.5 without him: 13 of 21; with him: 40 of 74 (95 games as teammates)

  • Opposing goalie

    Philipp Grubauer (Expected)

    Saves: 217 of 246 (.882) over his last 10 games · 7 of SEA's last 10 starts

Game log against Under 2.5

50%5 of 10L10

Under 2.5 Shots on Goal hit in 5 of his last 10 games (2 of 5 on the road).

  1. at ANA, 2026-10-13: 5, missed, 17.2 min
  2. at VGK, 2026-10-15: 3, missed, 16 min
  3. vs CAR, 2026-10-18: 3, missed, 19.5 min
  4. vs MIN, 2026-10-22: 3, missed, 16.4 min
  5. vs DET, 2026-10-24: 2, hit, 16.2 min
  6. vs TOR, 2026-10-26: 2, hit, 18.7 min
  7. at EDM, 2026-10-28: 3, missed, 18.2 min
  8. vs SEA, 2026-10-30: 1, hit, 13.5 min
  9. at COL, 2026-10-31: 2, hit, 15.6 min
  10. at SJ, 2026-11-02: 0, hit, 18.6 min
Under hitMissedThe 2.5 linehis 2026–27 time on ice

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 0–4 shots on goal.

Splits

Under 2.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Under 2.5 · L10

  • Joel FarabeeLW

  • Matvei GridinRW

  • Morgan FrostC

  • Jonathan HuberdeauLWInjured Reserve

  • Connor ZaryCOut

The three skaters with the most points a game among those playing 12+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Flames count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs SEA

Shots on Goal: 1 in 13.5 min, Oct 30 (home)

Under 2.5 hit in 7 of 10 games against SEA on record

L10 · Under 2.5

Average
2.4
−0.1 vs line
Median
2.5
±0 vs line
Hit rate
50%
5 of 10
Price implies
57%
at −130
Books’ fair
53%
margin removed
Our chance
59%
estimate · fair −142

Research, not a pick. At −130 (the best of 2 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −142, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10
Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
LineOverUnderL10
−22001 book—1/10
−3101 book—2/10
+1002 books−1302 books5/10
+2501 book—9/10
+5501 book—9/10
Compare 2 sportsbooks and 3 pick'em apps at 2.5
Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 2.5 Shots on Goal, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · readOver 2.5Under 2.5
FanDuel4 min ago+100Best−130Best
Pinnacle9 min ago+100Best−130Best
PrizePickspick'em, posted nowLine posted, no price
Sleeperpick'em, posted nowLine posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted nowLine posted, no price

Prices as of 2:13 AM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

2.5

Under No move since first seen

Matt Coronato's full game log and splits