Matt Boldy

Minnesota Wild · LW · #12

TB @ MIN · Today 8:00 PM

Over Under0.5

Over 0.5 Points, typical price −2306 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

80%8 of 10L10

Over 0.5 Points cleared in 8 of his last 10 games (2 of 3 at home).

vs CBJ, 2026-10-18: 0, missed, 21.8 min
at EDM, 2026-10-20: 2, cleared, 22.5 min
at CGY, 2026-10-22: 0, missed, 25.1 min
at SEA, 2026-10-24: 1, cleared, 17.2 min
at VAN, 2026-10-25: 1, cleared, 22.7 min
at UTAH, 2026-10-27: 1, cleared, 22.1 min
vs NYI, 2026-10-29: 1, cleared, 21.2 min
at WSH, 2026-11-01: 1, cleared, 21.3 min
at PHI, 2026-11-03: 2, cleared, 20.3 min
vs SJ, 2026-11-06: 1, cleared, 19.4 min

ClearedMissedThe 0.5 linehis 2026–27 time on ice

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 0–2 points.

What's different today

Over 0.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

TodayRest · back-to-back
Wild played the day before (vs SJ): a back-to-back
Teammate out
Brock Faber: Injured Reserve (skull)
Over 0.5 without him: 11 of 18; with him: 57 of 87 (105 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Nick Foligno: Injured Reserve (upper body)
Over 0.5 without him: 13 of 17; with him: 14 of 29 (46 games as teammates)
Opposing goalie
Andrei Vasilevskiy (Expected)
Saves: 216 of 244 (.885) over his last 10 games · 8 of TB's last 10 starts

Splits

Over 0.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against TB in his last 10; Over 0.5 cleared in 4 of 5 against TB on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Over 0.5 · L10

Kirill KaprizovLW
Quinn HughesD
Joel Eriksson EkC
Brock FaberDInjured Reserve
Nick FolignoLWInjured Reserve

The three skaters with the most points a game among those playing 12+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Wild count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs TB

Points: 0 in 22.2 min, Oct 8 (away)

Over 0.5 hit in 4 of 5 games against TB on record

L10 · Over 0.5

Average: 1; +0.5 vs line
Median: 1; +0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 80%; 8 of 10
Price implies: 70%; at −230
Books’ fair: 64%; margin removed
Our chance: 65%; estimate · fair −184

Research, not a pick. At −220 (the best of 6 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −184, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−2306 books	+1602 books	8/10
+1905 books	pick'em only	2/10
+5755 books	—	0/10

Compare 6 sportsbooks and 1 pick'em app at 0.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 0.5 Points, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 0.5	Under 0.5
DraftKings8 min ago	−220Best	+160
Pinnacle8 min ago	−225	+165Best
Bally Bet8 min ago	−230	—
betPARX5 min ago	−230	—
BetRivers7 min ago	−230	—
FanDuel5 min ago	−250	—
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 11:02 AM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

0.5

1.5 → 0.5 since first seen

Matt Boldy's full game log and splits