Martin Necas

Colorado Avalanche · C · #88

NSH @ COL · Today 9:30 PM

Over Under2.5

Under 2.5 Shots on Goal, typical price −1357 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

80%8 of 10L10

Under 2.5 Shots on Goal hit in 8 of his last 10 games (4 of 5 at home).

vs DAL, 2026-10-14: 0, hit, 22.4 min
vs PIT, 2026-10-16: 1, hit, 21 min
at PHI, 2026-10-19: 2, hit, 17.7 min
at NJ, 2026-10-20: 3, missed, 19.1 min
vs TB, 2026-10-23: 1, hit, 16.5 min
at NSH, 2026-10-25: 0, hit, 19.1 min
vs NJ, 2026-10-28: 4, missed, 19.6 min
vs CGY, 2026-10-31: 2, hit, 20 min
at CHI, 2026-11-02: 1, hit, 16.5 min
at CBJ, 2026-11-03: 2, hit, 18.9 min

Under hitMissedThe 2.5 linehis 2026–27 time on ice

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 0–4 shots on goal.

What's different today

Under 2.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Teammate out
Josh Manson: Out (ankle)
Under 2.5 without him: 3 of 9; with him: 51 of 98 (107 games as teammates)
Opposing goalie
Juuse Saros (Expected)
Saves: 280 of 308 (.909) over his last 10 games · 7 of NSH's last 10 starts
Defense vs forwards
NSH allow 20.7 shots on goal a game to forwards: 11th most of 32
15 games · last 10 games: 19.9, 16th most
Time on ice
Last 5: 18.8 min · 2026–27: 19.7 (16 games)
Power play: 3.5 min last 5 · 3.5 2026–27

Splits

Under 2.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Under 2.5 · L10

Nathan MacKinnonC
Cale MakarD
Devon ToewsD
Josh MansonDOut

The three skaters with the most points a game among those playing 12+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Avalanche count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs NSH

Shots on Goal: 0 in 19.1 min, Oct 25 (away)

Under 2.5 hit in 4 of 7 games against NSH on record

L10 · Under 2.5

Average: 1.6; −0.9 vs line
Median: 1.5; −1 vs line
Hit rate: 80%; 8 of 10
Price implies: 57%; at −135
Books’ fair: 53%; margin removed
Our chance: 61%; estimate · fair −156

Research, not a pick. At −119 (the best of 6 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −156, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−20002 books	—	2/10
−3253 books	—	5/10
−1037 books	−1356 books	8/10
+2353 books	—	9/10
+5003 books	—	10/10
+12001 book	—	10/10

Compare 7 sportsbooks and 3 pick'em apps at 2.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 2.5 Shots on Goal, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Pinnacle4 min ago	−111	−119Best
FanDuel4 min ago	−108	−120
DraftKings4 min ago	−105	−130
Bovada3 min ago	+105Best	−135
Bally Bet3 min ago	−103	−139
betPARX5 min ago	−103	−139
BetRivers5 min ago	−103	—
PrizePickspick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 2:24 PM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

2.5

Under: −118 → −135 since first seen

Martin Necas's full game log and splits