Martin Necas

Colorado Avalanche · C · #88

NSH @ COL · Today 9:30 PM

Over Under1.5

Under 1.5 Points, typical price −2306 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

60%6 of 10L10

Under 1.5 Points hit in 6 of his last 10 games (2 of 5 at home).

vs DAL, 2026-10-14: 0, hit, 22.4 min
vs PIT, 2026-10-16: 3, missed, 21 min
at PHI, 2026-10-19: 1, hit, 17.7 min
at NJ, 2026-10-20: 0, hit, 19.1 min
vs TB, 2026-10-23: 3, missed, 16.5 min
at NSH, 2026-10-25: 2, missed, 19.1 min
vs NJ, 2026-10-28: 0, hit, 19.6 min
vs CGY, 2026-10-31: 2, missed, 20 min
at CHI, 2026-11-02: 0, hit, 16.5 min
at CBJ, 2026-11-03: 0, hit, 18.9 min

Under hitMissedThe 1.5 linehis 2026–27 time on ice

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 0–2 points.

What's different today

Under 1.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Teammate out
Josh Manson: Out (ankle)
Under 1.5 without him: 6 of 9; with him: 60 of 98 (107 games as teammates)
Opposing goalie
Juuse Saros (Expected)
Saves: 280 of 308 (.909) over his last 10 games · 7 of NSH's last 10 starts
Defense vs forwards
NSH allow 6.00 points a game to forwards: 21st most of 32
15 games · last 10 games: 6.10, 19th most
Time on ice
Last 5: 18.8 min · 2026–27: 19.7 (16 games)
Power play: 3.5 min last 5 · 3.5 2026–27

Splits

Under 1.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Under 1.5 · L10

Nathan MacKinnonC
Cale MakarD
Devon ToewsD
Josh MansonDOut

The three skaters with the most points a game among those playing 12+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Avalanche count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs NSH

Points: 2 in 19.1 min, Oct 25 (away)

Under 1.5 hit in 5 of 7 games against NSH on record

L10 · Under 1.5

Average: 1.1; −0.4 vs line
Median: 0.5; −1 vs line
Hit rate: 60%; 6 of 10
Price implies: 70%; at −230
Books’ fair: 65%; margin removed
Our chance: 67%; estimate · fair −207

Research, not a pick. At −230 (the best of 2 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −207, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−2655 books	pick'em only	5/10
+1726 books	−2302 books	6/10
+5405 books	—	8/10

Compare 6 sportsbooks and 1 pick'em app at 1.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 1.5 Points, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 1.5	Under 1.5
DraftKings2 min ago	+170	−230Best
Pinnacle2 min ago	+170	−230Best
Bally Bet2 min ago	+180Best	—
betPARX2 min ago	+180Best	—
BetRivers1 min ago	+180Best	—
FanDuel1 min ago	+172	—
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 11:56 AM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

1.5

No move since first seen

Martin Necas's full game log and splits