Mark Stone

Vegas Golden Knights · RW · #61

VGK @ PIT · Today 7:00 PM

Over Under1.5

Over 1.5 Shots on Goal, typical price −1607 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

What's different tonight

Over 1.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

TonightRest · back-to-back
Golden Knights played last night (at BOS): a back-to-back
Teammate out
Parker Wotherspoon: Injured Reserve (upper body)
Over 1.5 without him: 6 of 10; with him: 3 of 6 (16 games as teammates)
Opposing goalie
Arturs Silovs (Confirmed)
Saves: 247 of 275 (.898) over his last 10 games · 6 of PIT's last 10 starts
Defense vs forwards
PIT allow 20.5 shots on goal a game to forwards: 15th most of 32
14 games · last 10 games: 20.4, 13th most

60%6 of 10L10

Over 1.5 Shots on Goal cleared in 6 of his last 10 games (3 of 5 on the road).

at MIN, 2026-10-12: 2, cleared, 20.1 min
at NSH, 2026-10-13: 0, missed, 16.6 min
vs CGY, 2026-10-15: 3, cleared, 14 min
vs PIT, 2026-10-17: 1, missed, 14.8 min
vs TB, 2026-10-20: 2, cleared, 18.5 min
at STL, 2026-10-22: 3, cleared, 16.8 min
at CBJ, 2026-10-24: 1, missed, 20.4 min
vs OTT, 2026-10-27: 3, cleared, 20.1 min
vs NJ, 2026-10-30: 1, missed, 16.3 min
at BOS, 2026-11-02: 2, cleared, 21.6 min

ClearedMissedThe 1.5 lineTime on ice

Our model's range for tonight: a typical night lands 0–4 shots on goal.

Count only

Over 1.5 · L10

With or without

Over 1.5 · L10

Mitch MarnerRW
Victor OlofssonLW
Jack EichelC
Parker WotherspoonDInjured Reserve

The three skaters with the most points a game among those playing 12+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out tonight. Only games they were teammates on the Golden Knights count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs PIT

Shots on Goal: 1 in 14.8 min, Oct 17 (home)

Over 1.5 hit in 2 of 6 games against PIT on record

L10 · Over 1.5

Average: 1.8; +0.3 vs line
Median: 2; +0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 60%; 6 of 10
Price implies: 62%; at −160
Books’ fair: 57%; margin removed
Our chance: 58%; estimate · fair −138

Research, not a pick. At −154 (the best of 7 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −138, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge: props on our numbers have lost money since Oct 7.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−8003 books	—	9/10
−1607 books	+1186 books	6/10
+2053 books	—	3/10
+4622 books	—	0/10
+8422 books	—	0/10

Compare 7 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 1.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 1.5 Shots on Goal, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 1.5	Under 1.5
FanDuel4 min ago	−154Best	+118
Bovada12 min ago	−155	+120Best
Pinnacle5 min ago	−157	+118
DraftKings14 min ago	−160	+120Best
Bally Bet5 min ago	−162	+115
betPARX5 min ago	−162	+115
BetRivers6 min ago	−162	—
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 12:58 PM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

1.5

−176 → −160 since first seen

Mark Stone's full game log and splits