Luke Hughes

New Jersey Devils · D · #43

NJ @ NYI · Today 7:00 PM

Over Under2.5

Under 2.5 Shots on Goal, typical price −1807 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

80%8 of 10L10

Under 2.5 Shots on Goal hit in 8 of his last 10 games (4 of 4 on the road).

vs NYR, 2026-10-15: 5, missed, 25 min
at WSH, 2026-10-17: 2, hit, 23.5 min
vs COL, 2026-10-20: 4, missed, 23.1 min
vs ANA, 2026-10-22: 2, hit, 24.3 min
vs LA, 2026-10-24: 2, hit, 25.4 min
at DAL, 2026-10-27: 2, hit, 23 min
at COL, 2026-10-28: 0, hit, 23.6 min
at VGK, 2026-10-30: 2, hit, 23.7 min
vs EDM, 2026-11-03: 1, hit, 28.7 min
vs STL, 2026-11-05: 2, hit, 26.8 min

Under hitMissedThe 2.5 linehis 2026–27 time on ice

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 0–4 shots on goal.

What's different today

Under 2.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Opposing goalie
Ilya Sorokin (Expected)
Saves: 244 of 268 (.910) over his last 10 games · 6 of NYI's last 10 starts
Defense vs defensemen
NYI allow 6.6 shots on goal a game to defensemen: 25th most of 32
15 games · last 10 games: 6.0, 31st most
Time on ice
Last 5: 25.2 min · 2026–27: 24.4 (16 games)
Power play: 3.8 min last 5 · 3.6 2026–27
Rest
1 day off since Nov 5 vs STL

Splits

Under 2.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against NYI in his last 10; Under 2.5 hit in 2 of 9 against NYI on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Under 2.5 · L10

Jack HughesC
Jesper BrattLW
Nico HischierC

The three skaters with the most points a game among those playing 12+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Devils count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs NYI

Shots on Goal: 3 in 21.7 min, Oct 3 (away)

Under 2.5 hit in 2 of 9 games against NYI on record

L10 · Under 2.5

Average: 2.2; −0.3 vs line
Median: 2; −0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 80%; 8 of 10
Price implies: 64%; at −180
Books’ fair: 59%; margin removed
Our chance: 62%; estimate · fair −166

Research, not a pick. At −160 (the best of 5 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −166, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−14503 books	—	1/10
−2403 books	—	2/10
pick'em only	pick'em only	2/10
+1287 books	−1805 books	8/10
+3053 books	—	8/10
+6703 books	—	9/10
+19001 book	—	10/10

Compare 7 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 2.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 2.5 Shots on Goal, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Pinnacle6 min ago	+122	−160Best
FanDuel6 min ago	+126	−165
DraftKings6 min ago	+135Best	−180
Bally Bet6 min ago	+128	−182
betPARX5 min ago	+128	−182
BetRivers6 min ago	+128	—
Bovada6 min ago	+125	—
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 9:54 AM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

2.5

Under isn't priced at 2.5 right now.

Luke Hughes's full game log and splits