Luke Hughes

New Jersey Devils · D · #43

STL @ NJ · Today 7:00 PM

Over Under2.5

Under 2.5 Shots on Goal, typical price −1757 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

80%8 of 10L10

Under 2.5 Shots on Goal hit in 8 of his last 10 games (3 of 5 at home).

at DET, 2026-10-13: 1, hit, 25.4 min
vs NYR, 2026-10-15: 5, missed, 25 min
at WSH, 2026-10-17: 2, hit, 23.5 min
vs COL, 2026-10-20: 4, missed, 23.1 min
vs ANA, 2026-10-22: 2, hit, 24.3 min
vs LA, 2026-10-24: 2, hit, 25.4 min
at DAL, 2026-10-27: 2, hit, 23 min
at COL, 2026-10-28: 0, hit, 23.6 min
at VGK, 2026-10-30: 2, hit, 23.7 min
vs EDM, 2026-11-03: 1, hit, 28.7 min

Under hitMissedThe 2.5 linehis 2026–27 time on ice

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 0–4 shots on goal.

What's different today

Under 2.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

TodayOpposing goalie
Jordan Binnington (Confirmed)
Saves: 199 of 230 (.865) over his last 10 games · 2 of STL's last 10 starts · Joel Hofer started 8
Defense vs defensemen
STL allow 8.3 shots on goal a game to defensemen: 4th most of 32
15 games · last 10 games: 8.8, 4th most
Time on ice
Last 5: 24.9 min · 2026–27: 24.3 (15 games)
Power play: 3.8 min last 5 · 3.6 2026–27
Rest
1 day off since Nov 3 vs EDM

Splits

Under 2.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against STL in his last 10; Under 2.5 hit in 4 of 5 against STL on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Under 2.5 · L10

Jack HughesC
Jesper BrattLW
Arseny GritsyukRW

The three skaters with the most points a game among those playing 12+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Devils count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs STL

Shots on Goal: 2 in 20.2 min, Feb 28 (away)

Under 2.5 hit in 4 of 5 games against STL on record

L10 · Under 2.5

Average: 2.1; −0.4 vs line
Median: 2; −0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 80%; 8 of 10
Price implies: 64%; at −175
Books’ fair: 60%; margin removed
Our chance: 62%; estimate · fair −160

Research, not a pick. At −165 (the best of 5 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −160, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−15002 books	—	1/10
−2402 books	—	3/10
pick'em only	pick'em only	3/10
+1307 books	−1755 books	8/10
+3252 books	—	8/10

Compare 7 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 2.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 2.5 Shots on Goal, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
FanDueljust now	+126	−165Best
DraftKings6 min ago	+125	−170
Pinnacle6 min ago	+130	−175
Bally Bet6 min ago	+138Best	−200
betPARX1 min ago	+138Best	−200
BetRivers1 min ago	+138Best	—
Bovada11 min ago	+128	—
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 5:49 PM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

2.5

Under isn't priced at 2.5 right now.

Luke Hughes's full game log and splits