Luke Evangelista

New Jersey Devils · RW · #77

NJ @ NYI · Today 7:00 PM

Over Under2.5

Under 2.5 Shots on Goal, typical price −1857 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

50%5 of 10L10

Under 2.5 Shots on Goal hit in 5 of his last 10 games (2 of 3 on the road).

vs VAN, 2026-10-10: 3, missed, 19 min
vs OTT, 2026-10-12: 0, hit, 11.7 min
vs COL, 2026-10-20: 6, missed, 16.9 min
vs ANA, 2026-10-22: 2, hit, 17.3 min
vs LA, 2026-10-24: 4, missed, 16.4 min
at DAL, 2026-10-27: 1, hit, 18.7 min
at COL, 2026-10-28: 0, hit, 17.5 min
at VGK, 2026-10-30: 3, missed, 18.7 min
vs EDM, 2026-11-03: 2, hit, 17.8 min
vs STL, 2026-11-05: 5, missed, 14.9 min

Under hitMissedThe 2.5 linehis 2026–27 time on ice

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 1–5 shots on goal.

What's different today

Under 2.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Opposing goalie
Ilya Sorokin (Expected)
Saves: 244 of 268 (.910) over his last 10 games · 6 of NYI's last 10 starts
Defense vs forwards
NYI allow 20.2 shots on goal a game to forwards: 17th most of 32
15 games · last 10 games: 20.6, 14th most
Time on ice
Last 5: 17.5 min · 2026–27: 17.3 (13 games)
Power play: 3.2 min last 5 · 3.4 2026–27
Rest
1 day off since Nov 5 vs STL

Splits

Under 2.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against NYI in his last 10; Under 2.5 hit in 4 of 6 against NYI on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Under 2.5 · L10

Jack HughesC
Jesper BrattLW
Nico HischierC

The three skaters with the most points a game among those playing 12+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Devils count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs NYI

Shots on Goal: 3 in 18.9 min, Oct 3 (away)

Under 2.5 hit in 4 of 6 games against NYI on record

L10 · Under 2.5

Average: 2.6; +0.1 vs line
Median: 2.5; ±0 vs line
Hit rate: 50%; 5 of 10
Price implies: 65%; at −185
Books’ fair: 60%; margin removed
Our chance: 56%; estimate · fair −129

Research, not a pick. At −164 (the best of 6 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −129, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−17252 books	—	2/10
−2303 books	—	3/10
pick'em only	pick'em only	3/10
+1357 books	−1856 books	5/10
+3403 books	—	7/10
+6252 books	—	8/10
+17001 book	—	9/10

Compare 7 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 2.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 2.5 Shots on Goal, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Pinnacle3 min ago	+123	−164Best
Bovada3 min ago	+135	−175
FanDuel3 min ago	+136Best	−178
DraftKings3 min ago	+135	−185
Bally Bet3 min ago	+135	−200
betPARX3 min ago	+135	−200
BetRivers5 min ago	+135	—
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 11:09 AM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

2.5

Under: −148 → −185 since first seen

Luke Evangelista's full game log and splits