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Luke Evangelista

New Jersey Devils · RW · #77

NJ @ NYI · Today 7:00 PM
OverUnder2.5
Under 2.5 Shots on Goal, typical price −1857 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

Game log against Under 2.5

50%5 of 10L10

Under 2.5 Shots on Goal hit in 5 of his last 10 games (2 of 3 on the road).

  1. vs VAN, 2026-10-10: 3, missed, 19 min
  2. vs OTT, 2026-10-12: 0, hit, 11.7 min
  3. vs COL, 2026-10-20: 6, missed, 16.9 min
  4. vs ANA, 2026-10-22: 2, hit, 17.3 min
  5. vs LA, 2026-10-24: 4, missed, 16.4 min
  6. at DAL, 2026-10-27: 1, hit, 18.7 min
  7. at COL, 2026-10-28: 0, hit, 17.5 min
  8. at VGK, 2026-10-30: 3, missed, 18.7 min
  9. vs EDM, 2026-11-03: 2, hit, 17.8 min
  10. vs STL, 2026-11-05: 5, missed, 14.9 min
Under hitMissedThe 2.5 linehis 2026–27 time on ice

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 1–5 shots on goal.

What's different today

Under 2.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

  • Opposing goalie

    Ilya Sorokin (Expected)

    Saves: 244 of 268 (.910) over his last 10 games · 6 of NYI's last 10 starts

  • Defense vs forwards

    NYI allow 20.2 shots on goal a game to forwards: 17th most of 32

    15 games · last 10 games: 20.6, 14th most

  • Time on ice

    Last 5: 17.5 min · 2026–27: 17.3 (13 games)

    Power play: 3.2 min last 5 · 3.4 2026–27

  • Rest

    1 day off since Nov 5 vs STL

Splits

Under 2.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against NYI in his last 10; Under 2.5 hit in 4 of 6 against NYI on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Under 2.5 · L10

  • Jack HughesC

  • Jesper BrattLW

  • Nico HischierC

The three skaters with the most points a game among those playing 12+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Devils count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs NYI

Shots on Goal: 3 in 18.9 min, Oct 3 (away)

Under 2.5 hit in 4 of 6 games against NYI on record

L10 · Under 2.5

Average
2.6
+0.1 vs line
Median
2.5
±0 vs line
Hit rate
50%
5 of 10
Price implies
65%
at −185
Books’ fair
60%
margin removed
Our chance
56%
estimate · fair −129

Research, not a pick. At −164 (the best of 5 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −129, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10
Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
LineOverUnderL10
−17252 books—2/10
−2303 books—3/10
pick'em onlypick'em only3/10
+1357 books−1855 books5/10
+3303 books—7/10
+6252 books—8/10
+17001 book—9/10
Compare 7 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 2.5
Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 2.5 Shots on Goal, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · readOver 2.5Under 2.5
Pinnacle7 min ago+123−164Best
FanDuel2 min ago+136Best−178
DraftKings7 min ago+135−185
Bally Bet7 min ago+135−200
betPARX3 min ago+135−200
BetRivers1 min ago+135—
Bovada6 min ago+130—
Sleeperpick'em, posted nowLine posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted nowLine posted, no price

Prices as of 9:59 AM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

2.5

Under: −148 → −185 since first seen

Luke Evangelista's full game log and splits