Kirill Kaprizov

Minnesota Wild · LW · #97

TB @ MIN · Today 8:00 PM

Over Under3.5

Under 3.5 Shots on Goal, typical price −1676 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

60%6 of 10L10

Under 3.5 Shots on Goal hit in 6 of his last 10 games (2 of 3 at home).

vs CBJ, 2026-10-18: 5, missed, 22.5 min
at EDM, 2026-10-20: 3, hit, 21.8 min
at CGY, 2026-10-22: 4, missed, 24.9 min
at SEA, 2026-10-24: 4, missed, 17.9 min
at VAN, 2026-10-25: 2, hit, 21.9 min
at UTAH, 2026-10-27: 4, missed, 24.6 min
vs NYI, 2026-10-29: 3, hit, 21.8 min
at WSH, 2026-11-01: 2, hit, 21.7 min
at PHI, 2026-11-03: 1, hit, 21.5 min
vs SJ, 2026-11-06: 3, hit, 19.5 min

Under hitMissedThe 3.5 linehis 2026–27 time on ice

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 1–5 shots on goal.

What's different today

Under 3.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

TodayDefense vs forwards
TB allow 16.7 shots on goal a game to forwards: 31st most of 32
15 games · last 10 games: 17.3, 28th most
TodayRest · back-to-back
Wild played the day before (vs SJ): a back-to-back
Teammate out
Brock Faber: Injured Reserve (skull)
Under 3.5 without him: 11 of 18; with him: 53 of 89 (107 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Nick Foligno: Injured Reserve (upper body)
Under 3.5 without him: 8 of 17; with him: 18 of 27 (44 games as teammates)

Splits

Under 3.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against TB in his last 10; Under 3.5 hit in 6 of 6 against TB on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Under 3.5 · L10

Quinn HughesD
Matt BoldyLW
Joel Eriksson EkC
Brock FaberDInjured Reserve
Nick FolignoLWInjured Reserve

The three skaters with the most points a game among those playing 12+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Wild count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs TB

Shots on Goal: 0 in 23.1 min, Oct 8 (away)

Under 3.5 hit in 6 of 6 games against TB on record

L10 · Under 3.5

Average: 3.1; −0.4 vs line
Median: 3; −0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 60%; 6 of 10
Price implies: 63%; at −167
Books’ fair: 58%; margin removed
Our chance: 61%; estimate · fair −159

Research, not a pick. At −150 (the best of 5 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −159, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−6702 books	—	1/10
−2152 books	—	3/10
pick'em only	pick'em only	3/10
+1256 books	−1675 books	6/10
+2352 books	—	9/10
+4752 books	—	10/10
+10001 book	—	10/10

Compare 6 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 3.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 3.5 Shots on Goal, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 3.5	Under 3.5
DraftKings2 min ago	+110	−150Best
FanDuel1 min ago	+120	−156
Pinnacle2 min ago	+125	−167
Bally Bet2 min ago	+128Best	−182
betPARX2 min ago	+128Best	−182
BetRivers4 min ago	+128Best	—
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 10:05 AM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

3.5

Under: −170 → −167 since first seen

Kirill Kaprizov's full game log and splits