Kirill Kaprizov

Minnesota Wild · LW · #97

SJ @ MIN · Today 8:00 PM

Over Under3.5

Under 3.5 Shots on Goal, typical price −1303 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

50%5 of 10L10

Under 3.5 Shots on Goal hit in 5 of his last 10 games (1 of 3 at home).

vs STL, 2026-10-15: 5, missed, 22.9 min
vs CBJ, 2026-10-18: 5, missed, 22.5 min
at EDM, 2026-10-20: 3, hit, 21.8 min
at CGY, 2026-10-22: 4, missed, 24.9 min
at SEA, 2026-10-24: 4, missed, 17.9 min
at VAN, 2026-10-25: 2, hit, 21.9 min
at UTAH, 2026-10-27: 4, missed, 24.6 min
vs NYI, 2026-10-29: 3, hit, 21.8 min
at WSH, 2026-11-01: 2, hit, 21.7 min
at PHI, 2026-11-03: 1, hit, 21.5 min

Under hitMissedThe 3.5 linehis 2026–27 time on ice

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 1–5 shots on goal.

What's different today

Under 3.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

TodayDefense vs forwards
SJ allow 22.2 shots on goal a game to forwards: 3rd most of 32
17 games · last 10 games: 23.5, 2nd most
Teammate out
Brock Faber: Injured Reserve (skull)
Under 3.5 without him: 10 of 17; with him: 53 of 89 (106 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Nick Foligno: Injured Reserve (upper body)
Under 3.5 without him: 7 of 16; with him: 18 of 27 (43 games as teammates)
Opposing goalie
Yaroslav Askarov (Expected)
Saves: 259 of 292 (.887) over his last 10 games · 6 of SJ's last 10 starts

Splits

Under 3.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against SJ in his last 10; Under 3.5 hit in 4 of 8 against SJ on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Under 3.5 · L10

Quinn HughesD
Matt BoldyLW
Joel Eriksson EkC
Brock FaberDInjured Reserve
Nick FolignoLWInjured Reserve

The three skaters with the most points a game among those playing 12+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Wild count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs SJ

Shots on Goal: 4 in 21.3 min, Dec 31, 2025 (away)

Under 3.5 hit in 4 of 8 games against SJ on record

L10 · Under 3.5

Average: 3.3; −0.2 vs line
Median: 3.5; ±0 vs line
Hit rate: 50%; 5 of 10
Price implies: 57%; at −130
Books’ fair: 51%; margin removed
Our chance: 57%; estimate · fair −134

Research, not a pick. At −115 (the best of 2 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −134, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−50001 book	—	0/10
−10503 books	—	1/10
−2903 books	—	3/10
−1103 books	−1302 books	5/10
+2053 books	—	8/10
+4103 books	—	10/10
+8503 books	—	10/10

Compare 3 sportsbooks and 3 pick'em apps at 3.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 3.5 Shots on Goal, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 3.5	Under 3.5
FanDuel5 min ago	−113	−115Best
DraftKings15 min ago	−105Best	−130
Bovada14 min ago	−110	—
PrizePickspick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 4:40 AM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

3.5

Under: −114 → −130 since first seen

Kirill Kaprizov's full game log and splits