Kirill Kaprizov
TB @ MIN · Today 8:00 PM
Game log against Under 1.5
50%5 of 10L10
Under 1.5 Points hit in 5 of his last 10 games (2 of 3 at home).
Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 0–3 points.
What's different today
Under 1.5 · facts from past games, not a pickTodayRest · back-to-back
Wild played the day before (vs SJ): a back-to-back
Teammate out
Brock Faber: Injured Reserve (skull)
Under 1.5 without him: 9 of 18; with him: 61 of 89 (107 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Nick Foligno: Injured Reserve (upper body)
Under 1.5 without him: 8 of 17; with him: 19 of 27 (44 games as teammates)
Opposing goalie
Andrei Vasilevskiy (Expected)
Saves: 216 of 244 (.885) over his last 10 games · 8 of TB's last 10 starts
Splits
Under 1.5 · L10 · counts, not in orderNo game against TB in his last 10; Under 1.5 hit in 4 of 6 against TB on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.
With or without
Under 1.5 · L10Quinn HughesD
Matt BoldyLW
Joel Eriksson EkC
Brock FaberDInjured Reserve
Nick FolignoLWInjured Reserve
The three skaters with the most points a game among those playing 12+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Wild count; “without” is a game he didn't play.
Last vs TB
Points: 1 in 23.1 min, Oct 8 (away)
Under 1.5 hit in 4 of 6 games against TB on record
L10 · Under 1.5
- Average
- 1.6
- +0.1 vs line
- Median
- 1.5
- ±0 vs line
- Hit rate
- 50%
- 5 of 10
- Price implies
- 66%
- at −190
- Books’ fair
- 61%
- margin removed
- Our chance
- 57%
- estimate · fair −134
Research, not a pick. At −190 (the best of 2 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −134, so it isn't worth it.
Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.
Lines posted now
Under hits, L10| Line | Over | Under | L10 |
|---|---|---|---|
| −2785 books | pick'em only | 1/10 | |
| +1506 books | −1902 books | 5/10 | |
| +4805 books | — | 9/10 | |
| +15001 book | — | 9/10 |
Compare 6 sportsbooks and 1 pick'em app at 1.5
| Sportsbook · read | Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings5 min ago | +140 | −190Best |
| Pinnacle5 min ago | +140 | −190Best |
| Bally Bet5 min ago | +160Best | — |
| betPARX6 min ago | +160Best | — |
| BetRivers5 min ago | +160Best | — |
| FanDuel5 min ago | +150 | — |
| Sleeperpick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
Prices as of 11:05 AM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.
The consensus line
1.5Under isn't priced at 1.5 right now.