Juraj Slafkovsky

Montreal Canadiens · LW · #20

WPG @ MTL · Today 7:00 PM

Over Under0.5

Under 0.5 Assists, typical price −1426 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

What's different tonight

Under 0.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

TonightTeammate out
Nick Suzuki: Out (upper body)
Under 0.5 without him: 3 of 5; with him: 67 of 110 (115 games as teammates)
TonightDefense vs forwards
WPG allow 4.67 assists a game to forwards: 2nd most of 32
15 games · last 10 games: 5.20, the most
Teammate out
Ivan Demidov: Injured Reserve (lower body)
Under 0.5 without him: 7 of 12; with him: 63 of 103 (115 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Mike Matheson: Out (lower body)
Under 0.5 without him: 5 of 10; with him: 65 of 105 (115 games as teammates)

60%3 of 5L20 · Without Suzuki

Under 0.5 Assists hit in 3 of 5 games without Nick Suzuki (his last 20 games).

at BUF, 2026-05-18: 0, hit, 23.1 min (not counted)
at CAR, 2026-05-21: 1, missed, 16.7 min (not counted)
at CAR, 2026-05-23: 0, hit, 18.9 min (not counted)
vs CAR, 2026-05-25: 0, hit, 21.6 min (not counted)
vs CAR, 2026-05-27: 0, hit, 17.3 min (not counted)
at CAR, 2026-05-29: 0, hit, 18.1 min (not counted)
at TOR, 2026-09-29: 0, hit, 17.9 min (not counted)
at PIT, 2026-10-03: 0, hit, 18.2 min (not counted)
vs CAR, 2026-10-06: 0, hit, 19.7 min (not counted)
vs NSH, 2026-10-08: 0, hit, 17.4 min (not counted)
vs DET, 2026-10-10: 0, hit, 22.2 min (not counted)
vs BUF, 2026-10-13: 2, missed, 19.7 min (not counted)
at WSH, 2026-10-14: 0, hit, 19.7 min (not counted)
vs BUF, 2026-10-17: 2, missed, 17.9 min (not counted)
vs SJ, 2026-10-20: 1, missed, 17.3 min (not counted)
at CHI, 2026-10-23: 0, hit, 16.1 min
at WPG, 2026-10-25: 1, missed, 16.4 min
at STL, 2026-10-27: 0, hit, 17.5 min
at DAL, 2026-10-29: 1, missed, 18.4 min
vs PIT, 2026-10-31: 0, hit, 17.4 min

Under hitMissedThe 0.5 lineTime on ice

Our model's range for tonight: a typical night lands 0–1 assists.

Count only

Under 0.5 · L20

With or without

Under 0.5 · L20

Nick SuzukiCOut
Lane HutsonD
Cole CaufieldRW
Ivan DemidovRWInjured Reserve
Mike MathesonDOut

The three skaters with the most points a game among those playing 12+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out tonight. Only games they were teammates on the Canadiens count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs WPG

Assists: 1 in 16.4 min, Oct 25 (away)

Under 0.5 hit in 3 of 5 games against WPG on record

L20 · Without Suzuki · Under 0.5

Average: 0.4; −0.1 vs line
Median: 0; −0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 60%; 3 of 5
Price implies: 59%; at −142
Books’ fair: 55%; margin removed
Our chance: 58%; estimate · fair −137

Research, not a pick. At −139 (the best of 2 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −137, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge: props on our numbers have lost money since Oct 7.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L20 · Without Suzuki

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L20
+1086 books	−1422 books	3/5
+5742 books	—	5/5
+20001 book	—	5/5

Compare 6 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 0.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 0.5 Assists, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 0.5	Under 0.5
Pinnacle9 min ago	+105	−139Best
DraftKings9 min ago	+110	−145
Bally Bet9 min ago	+108	—
betPARX5 min ago	+108	—
BetRivers6 min ago	+108	—
FanDuel4 min ago	+112Best	—
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 11:09 AM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

0.5

Under −145 → −142 since first seen

Juraj Slafkovsky's full game log and splits