John Carlson

Tampa Bay Lightning · D · #74

DET @ TB · Tue, Nov 3 7:00 PM

Over Under0.5

Over 0.5 Assists, typical price +1463 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

What's different yesterday

Over 0.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

YesterdayDefense vs defensemen
DET allow 1.07 assists a game to defensemen: 30th most of 32
15 games · last 10 games: 0.90, 31st most
Teammate out
Yanni Gourde: Injured Reserve (hip)
Over 0.5 without him: 3 of 13; with him: no games (13 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Zemgus Girgensons: Out (lower body)
Over 0.5 without him: 1 of 2; with him: 2 of 11 (13 games as teammates). A small sample.
Opposing goalie
Daniil Tarasov started DET's last game
Saves: 216 of 237 (.911) over his last 10 games · 3 of DET's last 10 starts · John Gibson started 6 · no probable starter posted yet

10%1 of 10L10

Over 0.5 Assists cleared in 1 of his last 10 games (0 of 4 at home).

vs MIN, 2026-10-08: 0, missed, 16.8 min
at NYI, 2026-10-10: 0, missed, 20.7 min
at NYR, 2026-10-13: 0, missed, 19.9 min
vs SEA, 2026-10-15: 0, missed, 21.6 min
vs VAN, 2026-10-17: 0, missed, 18.4 min
at VGK, 2026-10-20: 0, missed, 17.8 min
at COL, 2026-10-23: 0, missed, 18.3 min
at UTAH, 2026-10-24: 0, missed, 21.7 min
vs WPG, 2026-10-29: 0, missed, 13.2 min
at NSH, 2026-10-31: 1, cleared, 19.2 min

ClearedMissedThe 0.5 linehis 2026–27 time on ice

Splits

Over 0.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against DET in his last 10; Over 0.5 cleared in 3 of 7 against DET on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Over 0.5 · L10

Brandon HagelLW
Nikita KucherovRW
Jake GuentzelC
Yanni GourdeCInjured Reserve
Zemgus GirgensonsCOut

The three skaters with the most points a game among those playing 12+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out yesterday. Only games they were teammates on the Lightning count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs DET

Carlson didn't play the Apr 13 meeting; assists the last time Carlson faced them: 0 (Jan 29)

Over 0.5 hit in 3 of 7 games against DET on record

L10 · Over 0.5

Average: 0.1; −0.4 vs line
Median: 0; −0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 10%; 1 of 10
Price implies: 41%; at +146
Books’ fair: 35%; margin removed
Time on ice: 18.8; 10 games · 23.3 in 2025–26

Research, not a pick. We have no number of our own on this line yet; the market makes the Over 0.5 35%.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Line	Over	Under	L10
	+1463 books	−2232 books	1/10
	+11001 book	—	0/10

Compare 3 sportsbooks and 1 pick'em app at 0.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 0.5 Assists, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 0.5	Under 0.5
DraftKings6 hr ago	+185Best	−255
Pinnacle6 hr ago	+146	−197Best
Bally Bet6 hr ago	+130	—
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 7:12 PM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

0.5

Over +140 → +146 since first seen

John Carlson's full game log and splits

This page last updated 7:12 PM ET.