Joel Farabee

Calgary Flames · LW · #86

ANA @ CGY · Today 8:00 PM

Over Under2.5

Under 2.5 Shots on Goal, typical price −1883 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

50%5 of 10L10

Under 2.5 Shots on Goal hit in 5 of his last 10 games (4 of 5 at home).

at VGK, 2026-10-15: 3, missed, 20.4 min
vs CAR, 2026-10-18: 2, hit, 19.8 min
vs MIN, 2026-10-22: 1, hit, 18.9 min
vs DET, 2026-10-24: 3, missed, 18.9 min
vs TOR, 2026-10-26: 2, hit, 24.1 min
at EDM, 2026-10-28: 3, missed, 16.8 min
vs SEA, 2026-10-30: 1, hit, 15.3 min
at COL, 2026-10-31: 3, missed, 17.6 min
at SJ, 2026-11-02: 1, hit, 20.2 min
at SEA, 2026-11-04: 3, missed, 19.9 min

Under hitMissedThe 2.5 linehis 2026–27 time on ice

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 1–4 shots on goal.

What's different today

Under 2.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Teammate out
Jonathan Huberdeau: Injured Reserve (hip)
Under 2.5 without him: 30 of 43; with him: 38 of 50 (93 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Connor Zary: Out (knee)
Under 2.5 without him: 15 of 22; with him: 57 of 76 (98 games as teammates)
Opposing goalie
Lukas Dostal (Expected)
Saves: 226 of 263 (.859) over his last 10 games · 4 of ANA's last 10 starts
Defense vs forwards
ANA allow 20.5 shots on goal a game to forwards: 14th most of 32
16 games · last 10 games: 20.8, 12th most

Splits

Under 2.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against ANA in his last 10; Under 2.5 hit in 6 of 9 against ANA on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Under 2.5 · L10

Matt CoronatoRW
Matvei GridinRW
Morgan FrostC
Jonathan HuberdeauLWInjured Reserve
Connor ZaryCOut

The three skaters with the most points a game among those playing 12+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Flames count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs ANA

Shots on Goal: 2 in 20.4 min, Oct 13 (away)

Under 2.5 hit in 6 of 9 games against ANA on record

L10 · Under 2.5

Average: 2.2; −0.3 vs line
Median: 2.5; ±0 vs line
Hit rate: 50%; 5 of 10
Price implies: 65%; at −188
Books’ fair: 60%; margin removed
Our chance: 58%; estimate · fair −140

Research, not a pick. At −170 (the best of 2 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −140, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−13003 books	—	0/10
−2203 books	—	3/10
+1423 books	−1882 books	5/10
+3403 books	—	10/10
+7001 book	—	10/10
+16001 book	—	10/10

Compare 3 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 2.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 2.5 Shots on Goal, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
DraftKings9 min ago	+125	−170Best
FanDuel4 min ago	+142	−188
Bovada9 min ago	+146Best	—
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 4:20 AM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

2.5

Under: −196 → −188 since first seen

Joel Farabee's full game log and splits